14 Şubat 2013 Perşembe

U.S. Stock Futures news today february 14 2013

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U.S. Stock Futures news today february 14 2013 : A better-than-expected reading on the labor market helped push stock futures off the morning's lows, but stocks remained set to open lower after a weak reading on the European economy jarred investors.

Less than 60 minutes ahead of the open, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined 38 points, or 0.3%, to 13920. Standard & Poor's 500-stock index futures lost three points, or 0.2%, to 1514 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell seven points, or 0.2%, to 2763.

Changes in stock futures don't always accurately predict stock moves after the opening bell.

Initial claims for jobless benefits fell more than expected during the latest week from the previous week, to 341,000. Economists expected 360,000 new claims.

H.J. Heinz soared 20% in premarket trading after the company agreed to be acquired by an investment group, including Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital in a deal valued at $28 billion, including debt. Berkshire's Class B shares ticked up 0.2%.

Fellow food companies Kraft Foods Group, General Mills and Campbell Soup also advanced, tacking on 1.6%, 0.8% and 1.9%, respectively.

Dow component Cisco Systems advanced 0.2% after the networking company reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings but provided a somewhat downbeat outlook amid continued economic weakness in Europe and uncertainty surrounding government spending.

European markets were broadly lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 shedding 0.3%, after euro-zone gross domestic product contracted 0.6% in the fourth quarter, worse than expectations of a 0.4% decline. The bloc's two largest economies, Germany and France, also shrank by more than expected. Germany's DAX index dropped 0.9% and France's CAC 40 shed 0.5%.

Asian markets generally rose as the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged and said the economy appeared to have stopped weakening. That helped offset data showing Japan's GDP contracted slightly in the fourth quarter, versus expectations of a slight increase.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average gained 0.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, which reopened after an extended holiday weekend, rose 0.9%. Mainland Chinese markets remained closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Crude-oil futures rose 0.2% to $97.21 a barrel, while gold futures declined 0.1% to $1,642.90 a troy ounce. The dollar advanced against the euro and nudged higher against the yen. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell to 2.049% as prices rose.

In other corporate news, Constellation Brands surged 32% after agreeing with rival Anheuser-Busch InBev on revised terms of A-B InBev's divestiture of Grupo Modelo's U.S. assets, in which Constellation will be granted perpetual rights for the Corona and Modelo beer brands in the U.S. for $2.9 billion. Constellation will also buy the rest of Crown Imports it doesn't already own for $1.85 billion.

US Airways Group added 3% after the air carrier and the parent of American Airlines formally announced merger plans, which are expected to be completed by the third quarter of 2013.

Artio Global Investors climbed 33% after agreeing to be acquired by the U.K.'s Aberdeen Asset Management for $175 million.

Best Buy shed 0.7%. The shares lost 2% on Wednesday after The Wall Street Journal reported just before the closing bell that the electronics retailer's founder, Richard Schulze, may cancel his plans to take the company private, and may instead line up investors to take a minority stake.

PepsiCo gained 1.9% after the beverage and snack giant reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue and announced a 5.6% increase in its quarterly dividend.

Angie's List surged 29% after the reviews-based website reported a fourth-quarter profit, while analysts were anticipating a loss, and provided a first-quarter revenue outlook that was above current projections.

Stamps.com slumped 20% after the web-based postage services company's fourth-quarter earnings topped estimates, but revenue and its 2013 outlook missed forecasts.

Zillow climbed 8.3% after the real-estate website reported a fourth-quarter profit versus, versus expectations of a breakeven quarter, along with better-than-expected revenue.
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advantages to using bond funds than individual bonds

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advantages to using bond funds than individual bonds : Returns on bonds have been strong and steady over the past couple of years, and investors have flooded cash into bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds.

From January through November of last year, $346 billion flowed into bond funds and ETFs, while just $11 billion went into stock funds, according to the Wall Street Journal. There’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation here: money flows into bonds because of good performance, and good bond performance comes at least partly from high demand from investors.
But some bond experts are starting to question how long the good times can last. Barron’s reported that Loomis Sayles bond fund manager Dan Fuss felt the bond market was overbought and had “very high” risk. CNBC cited a note Bank of America credit strategist Hans Mikkelsen wrote to clients about the risk of “a disorderly rotation out of bonds—characterized by higher interest rates and wider credit spreads.”

Of course no one can know for sure what the future holds, but we do know that bond markets, like stock markets, do change over time, and what works in one market environment may not work in future markets.

Some investors see changing markets as a problem, but for active investors, changing markets can be an opportunity. Active investors can respond to changing markets. If foreign stock markets lag, they can move into better-performing domestic stocks. If growth is out of favor, active investors can turn to value stocks.

The same holds true for fixed-income. If interest rates rise, active fixed-income investors could invest in short-term bonds, which tend to remain fairly stable in rising rate environments, or use floating rate funds, which are more insulated from the negative impact of rising rates.  If credit conditions deteriorated, active investors could move to very high quality bonds, including Treasurys. If bond prices across the board were hit, active investors could even opt to go to cash.

I believe the most effective way for investors to actively manage their portfolios is to use mutual and exchange traded funds. Funds make it easy to move from one area of the market into another. This is especially true of bond funds.

Considering the headwinds facing the bond market, I think there are more advantages to using bond funds than individual bonds. Here are a few reasons why:

1. Diversification: Creating a truly diversified portfolio of individual bonds would require a portfolio upwards of $1 million. But investors can buy a diversified portfolio of bond funds with a few thousand dollars. Another benefit is that bond funds spread out their positions over many individual issues, and this can reduce credit (default) risk.  Most individual bond investors hold less than ten bonds in their portfolio. This may not be very risky when defaults are few and far between, but if the economy falters and more companies start to default on their debt, there could be greater danger in a homemade portfolio of individual bonds.


2. Expert Research: Most investors don’t check on companies’ financial health before buying their bonds. Instead they turn to rating agencies and simply buy a bond rated Aaa by Moody or AAA by Standard and Poor’s. But these ratings may not always be reliable, as the debt crisis of 2008 made painfully apparent. Mutual fund companies really earn their fees by doing the research on companies before they buy their bonds. This is particularly valuable when dealing with lower-quality bonds issued by smaller companies. Often companies don’t pay to have the ratings agencies evaluate their debt, so fund managers turn to their own team of analysts to evaluate risk.

3. Tracking Performance: Assessing the returns of a group of individual bonds can be difficult, because the income is not reinvested and some bond issues may not be readily priced. You’re more likely to pay attention to total return on your bond fund and ETF holdings—and more likely to notice when part of your portfolio isn’t working.

4. Access to Different Areas of the Bond Market: Investors who hold individual bonds don’t usually have access to foreign or emerging market bonds, but bond funds make it easy for investors to invest in niche areas like high yield corporate bonds, and global bonds, particularly those of emerging market governments. These areas are likely to become increasingly important sources of returns for fixed-income investors.

Emerging market economies issue about 10% of the world’s sovereign debt (bonds issued by governments), yet they make up about 40% of the world’s GDP. That puts them (as a group) in a good position to re-pay their debt. Bank loans are another type of security best accessed through mutual funds. Floating-rate funds are pools of bank loans made to companies, and the interest rates on those loans adjust as interest rates change. This can make them potentially appealing in a rising rate environment.

5. Liquidity: Perhaps the most important feature of bond funds versus individual issues is liquidity—the ability to exit a particular asset quickly and efficiently. If volatility increases and all areas of the bond market start to decline, active fixed-income investors can go to cash. By dumping bond funds and moving to the sidelines, fund investors make falling bond prices the fund manager’s problem. It’s much easier to sell shares of a bond fund than to unwind a portfolio of individual bonds. After all, a mutual fund is always required to buy back your shares but no one is required to buy back your individual bond.

These are just some of reasons are why I invest my fixed-income portfolios in funds and ETFs, rather than individual issues. As yields rose in January, I reduced my exposure to intermediate-term bonds in favor of bond funds like PIMCO Income (PONDX) and Osterweis Strategic Income (OSTIX), which have a broader spectrum of fixed-income that they can invest in.

PIMCO Income is weighted toward mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities, but also holds about 13% in emerging market bonds and 5% in floating-rate bank loans.

Osterweis Strategic Income has more credit risk but lower interest-rate risk (due to shorter average duration) than some intermediate-term bond funds. OSTIX also holds about 18% cash because the fund’s managers would rather wait for the bonds they like to reach the prices they perceive to be attractive before buying them. These funds offer a little bit higher yield, and a little lower duration so they offer a little more protection in case interest rates were to rise. (source www.forbes.co )
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13 Şubat 2013 Çarşamba

Alcoa Inc.earnings estimates report january 8 2013

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Alcoa Inc.earnings estimates report january 8 2013 :  Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is scheduled to report its fourth quarter and full-year 2012 results after the market closes on Tuesday, January 8. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the quarter is 7 cents per share, representing a significant year-over-year estimated decline of 316.67%. For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is 24 cents per share, representing an estimated year-over-year decline of 66.02%. With respect to earnings surprises, Alcoa has delivered an average negative earnings surprise of 25% over the trailing four quarters, implying that it has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by that measure.
Third Quarter Flashback
Alcoa reported a loss in the third quarter of 2012, hurt by a hefty charge associated with environmental remediation and legal settlement and lower aluminum pricing. The company posted a loss of $143 million or 13 cents per share in the quarter compared to a profit of $172 million or 15 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Excluding one-time special items (including a $175 million charge mainly related to environmental remediation of the Grasse River and the settlement of a civil lawsuit against Aluminum Bahrain), Alcoa earned $32 million or 3 cents per share in the quarter. Analysts polled by Zacks were expecting the company to report break-even results. The company recorded a $40 million charge associated with the legal settlement in the quarter.

Revenues decreased 9.1% year over year and 2.2% sequentially to $5,833 million, but were ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,565 million. Alcoa said that aluminum prices dropped 17% year over year and 5% sequentially in the third quarter.

Alcoa lowered its global aluminum demand forecast for 2012 to 6% from its earlier expectation of 7%, owing to the slowdown in China. The company, however, expects the aluminum market to double in 2020 from the 2010 levels as the market is already ahead of the required 6.5% compound annual growth rate.

Estimate Revisions Trend

Agreement
In the past 30 days, 2 analysts (out of 14) have revised their estimates upward while 5 have decreased their estimates for the fourth quarter. Over the last 7 days, none of the analysts raised their estimates while one downward revision was witnessed.

A similar trend is seen for full-year 2012 with 2 analysts (out of 15) having made upward revisions in the past 30 days while 6 moving in the opposite direction. While none of the analysts made any upward revision over the last 7 days, one of them moved downward.

Magnitude
Given the relative lack of movements, estimate for the fourth quarter has been static over the past week. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter has been reduced by a penny to 7 cents per share in the last 30 days.

For full-year 2012, estimate decreased by a penny to 24 cents per share over the past week and has reduced by 2 cents over the past month.

Our View   
We believe that Alcoa's outlook depends on the uncertainties in the aluminum market. In addition, we remain concerned about the volatile aluminum pricing and rising raw material costs. We expect rising energy and raw material (especially caustic soda) costs to continue constrain margin.

Alcoa is pursuing strategies to move down its cost curves in its upstream businesses, and record profitability in its midstream and downstream businesses. In conjunction with the revenue targets, management is committed to improving margins that will exceed historical levels in the midstream and downstream operations. The company aims to achieve these goals by optimizing its portfolio and restructuring its high-cost assets.

The company trimmed its aluminum demand forecast for 2012 due to slowdown in China. Alcoa is divesting underperforming assets through its restructuring program and is aggressively pursuing cost-cutting actions. Moving ahead, higher demand in the aerospace and automotive markets is expected to drive results. However, weakness across building and construction and commercial transportation markets is expected to continue into the fourth quarter.

Alcoa faces stiff competition from Aluminum Corporation of China Limited ( ACH ) and Rio Tinto plc. ( RIO ). We currently have a long-term Neutral recommendation on Alcoa, which is in agreement with a short-term Zacks #3 Rank (Hold). 

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Apple stock prices forecast 2016

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Apple stock prices forecast 2016, profit forecast,  profit margins ; Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL)’s investors will soon have to adjust to the reality of the company transforming into a high-value but low growth consume brand from being a hyper-growth story, according to an analyst who has published a 100-page overview of the company.
Sanford Bernstein’s analyst Toni Sacconaghi released his report about two weeks back and on Thursday released a summary of the highlights of the report.

Sacconaghi has cut his target for Apple’s stock to $750 from$800 observing that the sales of Apple will slow down over the next three years. For fiscal 2013, he has also reduced his profit forecast to $49.41 a share from $50.57 a share.

Apple is still in a high growth phase at the moment, but analysts are generally agreed that it is on the verge of middle age and is likely to slow down soon.

Last year it became the most valuable company and currently it market cap is at around $510 million. Its share price reached a peak at the time of the launch of its iPhone 5 but since then has slid by more than fifth from the record $705.07 it had hit in September.

Shrinking profit margins are a major worry for investors as well as the company’s ability to keep innovating and surprising its customers every time.

The iPhone 5 did sell in record numbers but critics agreed that there was nothing much to the phone in terms of novelty, while applications like the maps which were faulty detracted from the phone’s popularity.

The iPhone accounts for nearly half the revenues that the company generates and nearly all of its profit.

So what is really going on in Apple? What are the reasons for this Wall Street darling losing favor to such a degree? Where is this stock ultimately heading in regards to a price target? These are some of the things that I am seeing with the fundamentals of the Apple business model.

Philippines peso exchange rate forecast 2013

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Philippines peso exchange rate forecast 2013Philippines peso exchange rate forecast 2013, Philippines peso to US Dollar 2013 : The peso closed at 41.05 against the US dollar at the last trading day of 2012, gaining nearly 7 percent since the start of the year. The peso was the second fastest appreciating Asian currency against the dollar last year next only to the Korean won which rose by 7.17 percent.

In Monday's trading, the peso closed at P40.89 to $1. The rise of the peso has made Philippine-made goods more expensive in dollar terms and less competitive in the global market.
With this development in the local bourse, Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said Monday that the Philippine economy will likely hit the high end of its growth rate target in 2012 and would maintain a "high growth" in 2013.

"Hitting the 5-6 percent growth target for 2012 is no big deal, " Balisacan said, adding that the economy was likely to have expanded by about 6.5 percent last year.

For the fourth quarter of 2012, he said the expansion of the gross domestic product (GDP) would definitely be higher than 4.5 percent, which was the minimum required for the Philippines to hit the higher end of the target for 2012.

Analysts here said sustained investors' appetite for blue chips has pushed all the PSE indexes.

"A lot of investors are positive and very optimistic of the nation's prospects this year and some stocks are catching up in terms of valuation," Mark Canizares, head of equities at Manulife Philippines, was quoted by reports as saying.

Monetary authorities have been successful in keeping inflation rate at bay with the December rate at 2.9 percent, bringing the average pace of the price movement to 3.2 percent, within the lower end of the range target of between 3.0 percent and 5.0 percent.

The country's foreign exchange reserves also hit an all-time high of $84.25 billion at the close of 2012, buoyed by the dollar purchases of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), the country's central bank, which were meant to temper what could have been a sharp appreciation of the Philippine peso.

The yearend gross international reserves (GIR) were enough to cover a year of the country's import requirements and were nearly six times the combined foreign currency-denominated debts of the government and private entities maturing within a year.

The latest amount of GIR was up by about 12 percent from $75.30 billion in the previous year.

The BSP admitted that it had been buying dollars from the market to prevent a steep rise in the value of the peso against the US dollar.

Officials said that under its policy, the BSP allowed the exchange rate to be generally determined by the market, but intervened through currency trading in cases of significant volatility pressures. They said the sharp and sudden rise or fall of the peso was disruptive to businesses and to the economy.

The appreciation of the local currency has also reduced the peso value of the dollar remittances sent by overseas Filipinos.

Meanwhile, in its latest global report, the Washington D.C. based Institute of International Finance (IIF) said that among emerging economies in Asia, the Philippines will continue to remain second only to that of China this year.

The IIF also said that in three years to 2014, yearly domestic growth of the Philippines would be above 6 percent.

The think tank said that the country's gross domestic product would follow through with a growth rate of 6.8 percent next year after the latest forecast of 6.5 percent for 2012.

In 2014, the IIF predicts that the Philippine economy will grow slower at 6.2 percent, to be overtaken by India and Indonesia for second and third place after China.   "The Philippines stands out for its strong growth this year," the IIF said. "Real GDP was 7.1 percent greater in the third quarter than a year earlier - up from 6.2 percent in the first half, and 3.9 percent for 2011."

The IIF also noted that remittances from overseas Filipino workers reached $17.3 billion in the first nine months of 2012, which was 5.7 percent higher year-on-year. On the local currency, the IIF said that the peso is expected to trade at 40.80 against the US dollar in 2013. The local currency will be much stronger in 2014 when it is expected to trade at a round 40 against the US dollar, the IIF said.

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Gasoline prices forecast winter 2013

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Gasoline prices forecast winter 2013, gas price estimates summer 2013, average gas prices 2013, expects gas prices 2013,  injections in 2013 : investment bank Goldman Sachs on Monday cut its 2013 US natural gas price forecast to $3.75/MMBtu form $4.25/MMBtu, saying mild winter weather across the US has failed to put a serious dent in storage levels.

The bank said higher levels of coal-to-gas switching in the power sector would be needed to avoid approaching storage capacity by the end of the 2013 injection season, meaning that "natural gas will need to price lower."
"We now expect 2.4 Bcf/d of coal-to-gas switching will be needed on average in 2013 to reach comfortable inventory levels of 3.85 Tcf by the end of the summer, up from 2.1 Bcf/d previously," Goldman said.

Goldman said it expects gas prices to average $3.25/MMBtu in the first quarter, $3.75/MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.75/MMBtu in the third and $4.25/MMBtu in the fourth. It predicted the average price in 2014 will be $4.25/MMBtu.

The bank said its current 2013 price outlook is "bullish" relative to the average forward curve price of $3.50/MMBtu.

Also on Monday, Raymond James and Jefferies & Co. cut their gas price estimates, citing mild December temperatures and forecasts calling for normal to above-normal temperatures across key eastern US market areas.

Raymond James said that while gas prices could still rally on a January-February cold snap, it is cutting its first and second quarter 2013 estimates by 75 cents to $3.50/Mcf and $3/Mcf respectively.

Jefferies raised its winter exit inventory estimate by 265 Bcf to 2.1 Tcf and cut its first-quarter price forecast to $3.60/Mcf from $3.75.

Both Raymond James and Jefferies cut their 2013 price forecasts by 50 cents to $3.25/Mcf and 4 cents to $3.40/Mcf, respectively.

Raymond James also released its initial 2014 gas price forecast of $3.75/Mcf and maintained its long-term gas price forecast of $4.25/Mcf.

Both analysts also released preliminary estimates for storage at the end of the injection season, which traditionally ends November 1, with estimates of 3.665 Tcf at Jefferies and 4 Tcf from Raymond James.

Jefferies estimated that the pace of injections in 2013 will be 24% above last year, assuming normal summer temperatures. That assumption, however, may miss the mark given that that past three summers wee at least 20% warmer than normal, Jefferies said.

The companies also cited continued growth in gas production because of associated gas output from oil wells, a reversal of price-related shut-ins of early last year and the expectation of additional pipeline capacity in the Marcellus Shale.

Jefferies focused on the improving hydro/nuclear output, while also mentioning that coal will keep any gas rallies in check.

"Gas has sustained a 20%+ market share in generation of power, which is similar to last year but above the mid-teens average of the last decade," Jefferies said. "Low hydro and nuclear output have boosted gas demand. However, precipitation and snowpack levels in the Rockies are rapidly improving as is nuclear operating rates."
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12 Şubat 2013 Salı

Alcoa Inc earning per share $0.06 revenues of $5.9 billion

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stock market today - Alcoa Inc earning per share  $0.06 revenues of $5.9 billion , Alcoa Inc earning per share report jan 8 2013 : Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) released its earnings report today, Tuesday January 8, after the market closed. The company announced earnings per share of $0.06, and revenues of $5.9 billion. The company’s result are often used by investors as a proxy for all industrial stocks because its products have wide industry demand, and its earnings are released early in the season. The firm beat estimates of its revenue, and its earnings per share was in line.Today’s earnings come in the midst of a gripping earnings season. Investors are nervous about the supposed recovery in the US economy, and its effect on corporate earnings. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) shares closed today at $9.13 up 0.33%. After market trading, based on the firm’s earnings and the coming conference call, have not made any real change to the stocks prices of yet.

The company earned $0.72 per share for the full year 2011. The firm had revenue of $25 billion in the same year. The 2011 revenues came in more than 18% over 2010 revenues. This years results are disappointing in comparison.

Analysts are recommending, overall, that investors hold onto Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) shares. The firm’s stock is not expected to move much in the future, but if economic growth does return in a persuasive way, the company’s earnings are expected to take off. Alcoa shares didn’t change much in the course of 2012. The firm’s stock price finished just 0.82% below where it started the year.

Analysts were expecting Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) to earn around 6 cents per share and bring in revenue of around $5.64 billion. The company is not known for big surprises, but it can still surprise at times. The firms’ third quarter numbers came in at 3 cents. Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $0.

In the days leading up to the announcement of fourth quarter results, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) saw its stock price trend upward. In the last month, the stock’s price has increased by just over 7%. More than 5% of that increase has come in the last five days.

The repercussions of the Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) earnings are usually expected to weigh heavily on the other industrial stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA. Alcoa produces a commodity aluminum, which is widely used in many markets. This, coupled with its announcement of earnings early in the season, make today’s numbers a thermometer for the rest of that index.

The most important things to keep track of f studying Alcoa are the price of aluminum, the expected price of aluminum, and the company’s restructuring and cost cutting progress. If the world economy swings majorly upward, or downward, the company’s demand will follow.

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) had the benefit of high aluminum prices during the fourth quarter of 2012, that is responsible for a bump in the firm’s revenue this time around. Those pries may drop this year, due to rising inventories. 2013 could be a tough one for Alcoa.

Earnings season has officially started with the release of the Alcoa numbers, the next few weeks are going to be jam packed with figures for investors, with the really big announcements beginning next week.
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