Asian stock markets october 11 2012 : Asian stock markets were mixed Friday after U.S. jobless claims plummeted unexpectedly, with analysts saying more data was needed to confirm an actual improvement in the world's No. 1 economy.
Weekly applications for unemployment aid fell to their lowest since February 2008, the U.S. government said Thursday. The positive figures follow a report last week that said the unemployment rate fell in September to 7.8 per cent — below 8 per cent for the first time since January 2009.
Still, the job news isn't all that strong. Unemployment is much higher than before the financial crisis. In February 2008, the rate stood at 4.9 per cent. Additionally, some unemployed workers have simply given up looking for work, which can make the jobless numbers seem better than they really are.
"I think you need to wait for a few months to see more figures to confirm the jobs recovery in the U.S.," said Francis Lun, managing director of Lyncean Holdings in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 0.5 per cent to 21,100.76 and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 0.1 per cent to 4,487.20. South Korea's Kospi was flat at 1,932.18.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index was fractionally lower at 8,544.72. Telephone company Softbank plunged 15 per cent in Tokyo on news that it is in talks to take a substantial stake in U.S. carrier Sprint Nextel Corp. Fast Retailing fell 9.9 per cent after the Uniqlo casual clothing firm reported a first-half operating profit that missed market expectations, Kyodo News reported.
Other economic developments Thursday hurt investment sentiment.
The U.S. Commerce Department reported that foreign demand declined for American-made cars and farm goods. German economic researchers predicted the country's growth would slow, and unemployment in Greece, one of the countries surviving on bailouts, hit a record high of just more than 25 per cent.
One big unknown is Spain and whether the government of the recession-mired country will ask for a financial bailout.
Last month, the European Central Bank agreed to buy unlimited amounts of debt by struggling European countries to help lower their borrowing costs. But the governments first need to apply for bailout.
Spain has not applied. Instead, the government has introduced a series of austerity measures in a bid to bring down its deficit and convince investors it can manage its finances without outside help.
"For the day ahead, attention will likely shift to the US earnings reports, with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo in focus while uncertainty about the Spanish bailout will remain as a significant downside risk in the eurozone, leaving sentiment cautious," analysts at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong said in a market commentary.
Macau gambling shares did well following what analysts said was reportedly good revenues following the China's Golden Week holiday. Sands China Ltd. jumped 4.4 per cent and Wynn Macau Ltd. rose 1.5 per cent.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.1 per cent to 13,326.39. The Standard & Poor's 500 rose marginally to 1,432.84. The Nasdaq composite index fell 0.1 per cent to 3,049.41.
Benchmark oil for November delivery was up 8 cents to $92.15 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In currency trading, the euro dropped to $1.2929 from $1.2934 late Thursday in New York. The dollar was unchanged at 78.31 yen.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
12 Ekim 2012 Cuma
Asian stock markets october 11 2012
European stock market will open down october 12 2012
European stock market will open down october 12 2012 : European stocks were set to open lower on Friday as expectations for a weak earnings season and lingering uncertainty about Spain's debt crisis keep investors on the back foot after healthy gains in the previous session.
Financial spreadbetters expected Britain's FTSE 100 to open 15 to 18 points lower, or as much as 0.3 percent, Germany's DAX to open 15 to 18 points lower, or as much as 0.2 percent, and France's CAC 40 to open 13 to 18 points lower, or as much as 0.5 percent.
A rally in U.S. stocks faded in late trade on Thursday and other assets that depend on the economic cycle, such as copper, also edged lower on Friday in a sign investors' sentiment towards growth remained subdued .
The euro zone blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 equity index rose 1.2 percent on Thursday, rebounding from technical support in the 2,450 area, corresponding to its most recent low in late September, but was still poised for a weekly loss.
The index was down 4.1 percent from a six-month high hit in mid-September, when intervention pledges by the European Central Bank to help debt-laden countries had fuelled a 26 percent rally from late July.
Spain's hesitance to apply for a bailout, which would pave the way for the ECB intervention, has since unnerved investors, who have turned their focus to the bleak outlook for the European economy and corporate profits in the upcoming reporting season.
Euro zone industrial output figures, due at 0900 GMT, were forecast to show factories in the region cut output by 0.4 percent in August from the previous month, according to a Reuters poll, although market expectations for a stronger reading were rising after estimate-beating figures from individual countries
earlier this week.
Investor focus was likely to shift to the United States later in the day, when banks JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo unveil third-quarter results at 1000 GMT and 1100 GMT, respectively.
"For the day ahead, attention will likely shift to the U.S. earnings reports, with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo in focus while uncertainty about the Spanish bailout will remain as a significant downside risk in Eurozone, leaving sentiment cautious," Credit Agricole says in a note.
"Eurozone industrial production will likely print a better outcome than we expected one week ago for August." Credit Agricole expects the reading to show a 0.8 percent rebound month on month.
Among European companies due to report results on Friday, Belgian medical equipment supplies company Arseus was expected to post a 4.3 percent rise in third-quarter net sales, according to a Reuters survey.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
astrological stock market predictions october 15-19 2012
astrological stock market predictions october 15-19 2012 : Weekly planetary position: During the week, Moon will be transiting in Virgo, Libra & Scorpio. Lord Saturn & Mercury in Libra. Rahu & Mars in Scorpio, Pluto in Sagittarius, Uranus in Pisces. Neptune in Aquarius. Jupiter & Ketu in Taurus. Sun in Virgo. Venus in Leo. Sun will shift to Libra on 17th Oct 2012.
FOLLOWING SECTORS WILL BE GETTING ASTROLOGICAL SUPPORT:
TEXTILE: Bombay Dyeing , Arvind, Alok Industries, Century Textiles, Raymond & Garden Silk Mills etc. This sector was also predicted last week & during the week, Century & Bombay Dyeing moved up by 6 7.6%.
FINANCIALS: PFC , REC, IFCI, IDFC etc This sector was also predicted last week & during the week PFC shot up by 8%.
PERSONAL CARE sector i.e; Hindustan Unilever , Colgate Palmolive (India), Dabur India, Godrej Consumer Products & Godrej Industries etc will also be getting astrological support.
LEATHER: Bata India , Relaxo Footwears & Liberty Shoes etc.
New Samvat 2069 (Hindu New Year) have started from 23rd March 2012. Whenever New Samvat starts, based on planetary position / conjunction & aspect among planets, some new sectors commence out performing & many sectors, which were in momentum during last Samvat start underperforming.
It has been observed many times that investors / traders (not knowing this fact) keep investing /trading in such sectors,( whose astrological support is over) resulting in losses. It is suggested to consult your Financial Astrologer to know about the sectors.
One should trade only in the stocks of that sectors which are getting very strong astrologically support.
Sectors which get very strong ASTROLOGICAL support are not normally affected by downfall in the market.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
AMD Q3 Revenue expected down 2012
AMD Q3 Revenue expected down 2012 : It’s been a brutal year for Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD). Its stock is down about 45% and, unfortunately, a recovery seems far away.
Last night, the company issued a warning for Q3. Revenue is expected to plunge 10% from last quarter to $1.27 billion. The prior forecast was a range of $1.36 billion to $1.44 billion.
Gross margins are also forecast to be about 31%, which is down from an earlier estimate of 44%. And there will be a $100 million charge for inventory.
AMD’s troubles should actually not be a surprise, though. Even large players like Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) are struggling in the PC market because of the continued shift to tablets — a shift that has benefited companies like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).
Plus, AMD has been lagging in terms of mobile strategy. And with much fewer resources than rivals like Intel and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), there seems to be little hope that the company will be able find a way to get a meaningful piece of the tablet market.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
10 Ekim 2012 Çarşamba
Natural gas futures prices october 10 2012
Natural gas futures prices october 10 2012 : Natural gas futures were little changed during U.S. morning trade on Wednesday, as market players continued to monitor updated weather forecasts to gauge the strength of early-Autumn heating demand.
Traders also looked ahead to Thursday’s closely watched U.S. government report on natural gas supplies.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in November traded at USD3.464 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning trade, easing down 0.1%.
The November contract traded in a range of USD3.450 per million British thermal units, the daily low and USD3.510, the session high. Prices touched USD3.514 per million British thermal units on Tuesday, the strongest level since October 3.
Updated weather forecasts released Tuesday showed that weather models for the next 11-to-15 days were cooler than initially expected, boosting early-Autumn heating demand for natural gas.
Weather forecasters had previously called for warmer-than-normal temperatures during the period.
Natural gas futures often reach a seasonal low in October, when mild weather reduces demand, before recovering in the winter, when heating-fuel use peaks.
Meanwhile, market players shifted their focus to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s closely watched weekly report on natural gas inventories scheduled for Thursday.
Early injection estimates range from 76 billion cubic feet to 98 billion cubic feet, compared to last year's build of 108 billion cubic feet. The five-year average change for the week is an increase of 84 billion cubic feet.
Total U.S. gas supplies stood at 3.653 trillion cubic feet, 8.3% above the five-year average level for the week.
Inventory did not top the 3.4-trillion cubic feet level in 2011 until October 5, with stocks peaking at a record 3.852 trillion cubic feet in November of last year.
Market analysts have warned that without strong demand through the early-Autumn shoulder season, gas inventories will reach the limits of available capacity later this year.
The shoulder season is the period in autumn when gas demand typically slackens and prices fall.
Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in November rallied 0.9% to trade at USD93.23 a barrel, while heating oil for November delivery rose 1.05% to trade at USD3.237 per gallon.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
U.S. grain futures down october 10 2012
U.S. grain futures down october 10 2012 : U.S. grain futures were mostly lower during European morning hours on Wednesday, as market players were reluctant to push up prices ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly global supply and demand report scheduled for Thursday.
On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, soybeans futures for November delivery traded at USD15.4450 bushel, shedding 0.3%. The November contract fell by as much as 0.8% earlier in the session to hit a daily low of USD15.3662 a bushel.
The USDA’s weekly crop progress report released after Tuesday’s closing bell showed that approximately 58% of the U.S. soy crop was harvested as of October 7, up from the 41% recorded a week earlier.
The five-year average for this time of year is 40%, while only 42% of the crop was harvested in the same week a year earlier.
Soybean prices have been under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks, losing nearly 13% since hitting an all-time high of USD17.8888 a bushel on September 4, as U.S. farmers started harvesting soybeans at a brisk pace.
Soy traders were also starting to focus on soybean production in Brazil and Argentina, the world’s second and third largest exporters of the oilseed.
Agricultural meteorologists said that grain-growing regions in eastern Argentina will experience some rainfall later in the week, potentially boosting yields and upgrading the quality of the harvest.
Meanwhile, corn futures for December delivery traded at USD7.4188 a bushel, dipping 0.1%. The December contract was stuck in a narrow trading range of USD7.4338 a bushel, the daily high and a session low of USD7.4062 a bushel.
The USDA said that nearly 69% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of last week, up from 54% in the preceding week and significantly higher than the 29% recorded in the same week a year earlier.
The five-year average for this time of year is 28%.
Corn prices have been under pressure in recent weeks, amid easing concerns over the pace of the U.S. corn harvest.
Corn prices touched a record high of USD8.4237 a bushel on August 10, as escalating concerns over the impact of the worst drought in at least 56 years in the U.S. Midwest and Great Plains-region drove prices higher.
Elsewhere, wheat for December delivery traded at USD8.6850 a bushel, climbing 0.5%. The December contract rose by as much as 0.65% earlier to hit a daily high of USD8.7013 a bushel.
Wheat prices continued to draw support from concerns over a disruption to supplies from top producers Russia and Australia. The two countries are the world’s second and third largest exporters of the grain, trailing only the U.S.
Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at USD66.7 billion in 2010, followed by soybeans at USD38.9 billion, government figures show. Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion, behind hay.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
9 Ekim 2012 Salı
Link: A Tableau (Interactive Graph) of Foreign Ownership of US Treasury Bonds
The interactive graph is here. (The picture below is just a snapshot, and *not* the interactive graph.)
The Tableau gives the impression that more countries held US Treasuries now than 5 or 10 years ago. However, the data source the blog post referenced doesn’t go back to March 2000. So, it isn’t clear to me whether that is indeed the case, or if there are some issues with the data not being broken out from the “all other” categories for some countries in some years.
8 Ekim 2012 Pazartesi
Gold prices prediction october 1-5 2012
Gold prices prediction october 1-5 2012 : Gold retreated from a seven-month high Friday but still scored a quarterly 10.6% pick-up, its best quarter in more than two years.
Gold was not the lone commodity to rise during the July-September period. The precious metals complex was rowdy across-the-board with companion quarterly gains of over 25% for silver, nearly 15% for platinum and almost 10% for palladium.
On Friday, gold prices for December delivery shed $6.60 to settle at $1,773.90 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar were among reasons analysts cited for the day’s loss.
Although down 0.4% on the day and 0.2% for the week, a 5.1% monthly advance helped secure the best quarter for gold prices since the April-June period in 2010. And the yellow metal has notched a 13.2% increase in 2012, with many market-watchers expecting more advances in the coming days.
"Gold prices are finding underlying support from ultra-loose monetary policy and rising European debt problems and this could give the yellow metal further strength next week," reports Kitco News.
"In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those 24 participants, 20 see prices up, while two see prices down, and two are neutral or see prices moving sideways…
Not everyone is forecasting higher prices. After such a strong rally, a few participants said they were looking for gold to retrace these gains, so they expected prices to be down next week…"
Bloomberg’s weekly gold survey was less bullish. Results show that 15 participants expect higher gold prices next week with 13 bearish and 2 neutral.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
7 Ekim 2012 Pazar
Stock markets forecast october 1-5 2012
Stock markets forecast october 1-5 2012 : Wall Street will open October with a busy week, highlighted by low expectations for global manufacturing data and the U.S. jobs report, but that could set the stage for positive surprises that help lift the market.
The S&P 500 .INX.SPX finished its third positive quarter in the last four on Friday, despite suffering its largest weekly percentage decline since June. For the past three months, the S&P 500 gained 5.9 percent - its best third quarter since 2010. In contrast, the index was down 1.3 percent for the week.
The benchmark S&P 500 earlier this month reached its highest level since late 2007. Yet uncertainty remains over whether stocks can hold their gains against the headwinds of a struggling economy. That explains, in part, the retreat over the last several days.
The S&P 500 hit a high of 1,474.51 in mid-September before pulling back by a bit more than 2 percent. A run at 1,500 seems possible, but the flurry of economic and world events ahead probably will prevent a major advance in the coming week.
Bulls are betting this week's Spanish budget proposals will be a preamble to a bailout request by Mariano Rajoy's government. The move would be seen as a first step to get the finances of the euro zone's fourth-largest economy in order and would clear some of the market uncertainty regarding the euro zone crisis.
Monetary policy is also on the list of market catalysts next week. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak on Monday and the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting are set for release later in the week. The week's agenda includes meetings of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.
"I think we could see a rebound next week if we get some of the stars aligning and have Spain ask for a bailout, the ECB announcing favorable terms for that bailout, and if we see the Bank of Japan announce further monetary intervention," said Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
"If Spain and the ECB don't deliver, we could set ourselves up for a further lateral move in the markets. A negative would be if Rajoy flat-out denies that they need a bailout."
The ECB and BOJ are set to meet on Thursday, with the Bank of Japan's meeting extending until Friday.
FACTORIES, JOBS AND THE DEBATES
Chinese factory and business conditions data will kick off a numbers-heavy calendar for markets. Manufacturing PMI, due on Monday, is expected to show a second straight month of contraction.
A snapshot of U.S. manufacturing activity will be provided on Monday when the Institute for Supply Management releases its September index. The September ISM reading is expected to show another month of contraction, but at a slightly slower pace than in August. On Wednesday, the ISM will release its U.S. services-sector Purchasing Managers' Index, which could show a slight deceleration in the pace of growth in the non-manufacturing sector.
"We have Chinese economic data over the weekend, and we'll see how markets react on Monday," said Wasif Latif, vice president of equity investments at San Antonio, Texas-based USAA Investment Management.
"It seems like the market is bracing for bad numbers, meaning if they're not as bad, it could be market-positive," Latif said.
Non-farm payrolls for September, due on Friday, are seen up 115,000, while the U.S. unemployment rate is seen ticking up 0.1 percent from August to 8.2 percent in September.
The jobs data will come on the heels of the first of three U.S. presidential debates, scheduled for Wednesday night. Recent poll numbers point to a strengthening lead by President Barack Obama, but a weak payrolls reading could give some hope to Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
"If Romney doesn't turn the ship with a very strong (debate)performance, the president is going to win," said Jack de Gan, chief investment officer at Harbor Advisory Corp in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
He said the trend in the polls has taken away some of the market uncertainty regarding the presidential election. He added that an ECB- or Spain-related headline out of Europe on Thursday could overcome almost anything that would happen Wednesday night during the debate.
"I think the market is coming to terms with the fact the president is ahead, and unless something significant changes, (he) will prevail."
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
Indian stock market prediction october 1-5 2012
Indian stock market prediction october 1-5 2012 : The Indian market will remain volatile in a truncated week as the investors may continue to book profits after a recent run up in share prices, Sharekhan said in a report.
"Automobile and cement stocks are likely to be in focus as companies from these two sectors will start unveiling monthly sales volume data for September 2012 from Monday (October 01, 2012)," the report noted.
Markets wrapped up the week ended September 28, 2012 in green for the fourth straight week with the BSE Sensex rising 0.05 per cent and the NSE Nifty up by 0.21 per cent. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 2.72 per cent and the BSE Small Cap index rose 3.06 per cent. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.
Volatility ruled the markets this week on account of global woes both in local and overseas indices. The markets registered gains in three out of the five trading sessions.
The stock market will remain closed on Tuesday (October 02, 2012) on account of Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti.
For the coming week, shares of aviation firms will also be in focus as state-run oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will undertake periodical review prices of jet fuel or aviation turbine fuel (ATF) on Monday (October 01, 2012).
On Thursday (October 04, 2012), Market Economics will release HSBCBSE 0.24 % India Services PMI and HSBC India Composite PMI for September 2012. The HSBC India Services PMI had risen to a six-month high of 55 in August 2012 from 54.2 in July 2012.
From the global front, the Hong Kong stock market is closed on Monday (October 01, 2012) and Tuesday (October 02, 2012), while mainland Chinese markets are shut for the whole of next week for the Golden Holiday week running from September 30 to October 07, 2012.
FII/MF activity The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been the net buyers of Indian stocks to the tune of Rs6207.9 crore till September 25, 2012. The domestic investors sold Indian shares worth Rs258.4 crore on September 25, 2012.
Disclaimer: The analyst may have a position in the scrips mentioned above, and the views given are the personal views of the analyst.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
Nifty futures tips october 1-5 2012
Nifty futures tips october 1-5 2012, Nifty chart technical prediction october 1-5 2012 : The Indian market will remain volatile in a truncated week as the investors may continue to book profits after a recent run up in share prices, Sharekhan said in a report.
Markets wrapped up the week ended September 28, 2012 in green for the fourth straight week with the BSE Sensex rising 0.05 per cent and the NSE Nifty up by 0.21 per cent. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 2.72 per cent and the BSE Small Cap index rose 3.06 per cent. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.
Volatility ruled the markets this week on account of global woes both in local and overseas indices. The markets registered gains in three out of the five trading sessions.
The stock market will remain closed on Tuesday (October 02, 2012) on account of Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti.
After a flat opening the Nifty drifted lower to breach the weekly support of 5,648 points, intraday, only to recover and close above it on the settlement day. The new settlement opened with an upside gap and the Nifty finally closed a meagre 12 points (+0.21%) in the green. Volumes were, however, significantly higher as the Nifty formed a “high wave line” (though not classical as the candle should preferably have been longer), implying that there is equilibrium at current levels between the bulls and bears. The histogram MACD, which is above the median level, moved higher indicating that the bulls remain in control even though the short-term oscillators have ventured into overbought territory.
The sectoral indices which outperformed were CNX Media (+6.47%), CNX FMCG (+4.13%), CNX Realty (+3.94%), CNX Consumption (+2.82%), CNX Pharma (+2.12%) and CNX Auto (+1.19%) while the underperformers were CNX Metal (-1.75%), CNX Energy (-1.57%), CNX PSE (-1.20%) and CNX IT (-1.03%).
Here are some key levels to watch out for this week
■ As long as the S&P Nifty stays above 5,692 points (pivot) the bulls will be in control.
■ Support levels in declines are pegged at 5,649 and 5,595 points.
■ Resistance levels on the upside are pegged at 5,746 and 5,788 points.
Some Observations
1. The Nifty came very close to hitting the 61.8% retracement level of the decline from 6,338-4,770 points pegged at 5,740.
2. The Nifty is now moving within a sharp up sloping channel (in blue), support from which is pegged around 5,410 points and resistance is pegged around 5,795 points, this week.
3. We have closed above the previous weekly top of 5,629 points (24 February 2012) which is a sign of strength as long as it stays above it.
4. The weekly chart above also shows a channel (in brown) the resistance line of which should be closely watched in the weeks ahead.
5. We have completed 89 weeks (Fibonacci number) from the top of 6,338 points (05 November 2010) hence one has to keep a close watch whether the market starts correcting from this level.
6. The volumes were significantly higher as compared to the previous week which was also the case a week prior to the previous significant top of 5,629 points (24 February 2012). Hence one needs to be alert for the slightest sign of a break of support.
Strategy
The bulls have managed to hold on despite the dullness for the better part of the week. There is a small body on very high volumes which is a warning that the volatility is likely to increase in the coming weeks. One has to keep a tight stop loss on longs because we have completed 89 weeks from the top of 6,338 points and the previous top of 5,629 points was also made on significantly higher volumes. The simplest stop loss that one can keep is the last week’s low of 5,638 points. Tighten your seat-belts as the volatility is likely to increase in the weeks ahead.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
Indian stock markets forecast october 8-12 2012
Indian stock markets forecast october 8-12 2012 ; Trading in stock markets is likely to remain volatile this week in view of key events including industrial production data and trends in July-September quarter results with InfosysBSE -1.84 % announcing its numbers on October 12, say analysts.
"IIP data on Friday shall impact the market trend. Also, July-September corporate results will start and will have stock as well as sector-specific impact," Bonanza Portfolio Vice President Rakesh Goyal said.
A weaker-than-expected August industrial output data on Friday will be a key input ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy review on October 30, an expert said.
According to Milan Bavishi, Head Research, Inventure Growth & Securities: "The markets are expected to remain volatile over the coming weeks primarily, due to swift movements in US dollar.
"While currently, rupee is showing signs of strengthening, temporary weakness in rupee cannot be ruled out. This can result in profit booking in markets."
The rupee looked weary after posting its fifth straight weekly gain and closed at 51.85 to a dollar, dealers said.
Analysts, however, say the big-ticket reform measures announced by government last week, including FDI in insurance and pension, will continue to provide comfort to the markets.
"... it is becoming clearer that government is on a reform drive and markets are likely to derive comfort from these reassuring moves," Edelweiss Securities said in a report.
Market participants will also take cues from FIIs, who have bought stocks worth 3,300 crore in October so far.
Angel Broking in a report on expectations from second quarter results said: "The continued trend of slowing growth and elevated inflation is expected to impede corporate earnings performance to some extent in Q2 FY'13 as well.
"Sectors such as banking, IT, mining and metals are expected to contribute considerably towards Sensex earnings growth for the quarter while oil and gas and telecom sector are likely to weigh down on overall earnings."
Markets experts said investors will also track the two-day trip by top US officials, led by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, this week.
Geithner will be accompanied by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, besides others on two-day visit beginning October 9, were they are scheduled to have several high-level meetings in the capital and Mumbai.
On the global front, unemployment rate in the US last month dropped to 7.8 per cent and that could help Asian markets open higher on Monday, said brokers.
The 30-share Sensex closed at 18,938.46 while the 50-share Nifty ended at 5,746.95 on Friday, snapping a four-day rally.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
Chinese stock markets outlook october 8 2012
Chinese stock markets outlook october 8 2012 : Chinese stock markets ended with gains on September 28, the last trading day before the eight-day holiday, as the heavily weighted non-ferrous metal, brewing, environmental protection, real estate and securities sectors outperformed in what was a broadly positive day for mainland equities.
The Shanghai Composite Index finished trading at 2,086.17 points on September 28, up 29.85 points, or 1.45 percent on the day; while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8,679.22 points after climbing 192.94 points, or 2.27 percent on the day.
Both markets began the last week of September with modest advances after the provincial government of Sichuan unveiled a multi-trillion yuan round of development projects. Tuesday witnessed the markets close with losses as gold, non-ferrous metal, gas heating, Internet and media stocks declined. The slide extended into Wednesday, when the Shanghai Composite bottomed out at an inter-day low below the 2,000 point mark and closed at a 43-month low. The situation improved Thursday as investor confidence picked up after the People's Bank of China (PBC) injected a record dose of cash into the country's money market to ease short-term liquidity stresses.
Chinese retailer Suning Appliance surged 9.29 percent to 6.94 yuan ($1.10) on September 28 after the company announced it would acquire Redbaby.com.cn, an online retailer of infant and maternal products, for $66 million.
Mainland stocks registered a net capital inflow of 2.47 billion yuan during the last week of September. The securities, banking, engineering construction, coal and brewing sectors received the most capital; while the non-ferrous metal, medicine, computer and education sectors experienced the biggest outflows.
With mainland bourses set to reopen Monday, some analysts are optimistic that shares will climb higher after the holiday break.
"Investors are speculating that some key favorable policies [in China] will be rolled out after the National Day holiday, since the time of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party has been settled," according to a report Friday by the South China Morning Post, citing Patrick Yiu, the managing director at CASH Asset Management.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
6 Ekim 2012 Cumartesi
Technical Forecast Gold, Silver prices october 1-5 2012
Technical Forecast Gold, Silver prices october 1-5 2012 : The complex retreated during the week with the exception of Palladium. However, I believe that Gold will be the biggest beneficiary under the central bank easing environment. Weakening of the USD after announcement of the Big Stimulus, talks of inflation and currency debasement are factors to send the precious Yellow metal higher.
After a short rebound last week, the Gold/Silver ratio resumed its decline. Silver has performed the best in the complex so far this year. The precious White metal has gained +23.9%, compared with Platinum’s 18.4%, Gold’s +13.2% and Palladium’s drop of -2.78%.
The latest data set from China suggested that Silver’s demand has improved.
Remaining a net importer, imports fell just -3% Y-Y to 304 metric tons while exports fell about -10% Y-Y to 61.5 metric tons. Overall industrial demand remains weak as the semiconductor billings data signaled that shipments in Europe and US despite recovery in China and Japan.
A further rise in Silver will continue to be driven by ETF demand. Concerns over inflation and currency debasement have driven capitals to the precious White metal as a cheaper alternative of Gold
Gold consolidated below 1790, the Resistance last week. Despite a rally attempt, Gold is limited below this mark IMO.
More sideway trading may be seen.
Note: as long as 1720, the minor support holds, this run North is expected to continue.
A clear crack of 1792.7/1804.4, the Resistance zone, will have larger Bullish implication and will show the way to 1923.7, the historical high. But, a break of 1720 will indicate near term reversal and will turn my outlook Bearish for a move to 1674, the Key support 1st
The Big Picture: price actions from 1923.7 high are seen as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that this consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 the Support zone and bring on a rebound. A clear break of 1792.7/1804.4, the Resistance zone, augurs that the long term up trend may be resuming for a new high above the 1923.7 mark.
The Long Term Picture: with 1478.3, the Key support, intact, there is no change in my long term Bullish outlook for Gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, I still look for a break of 2000 psych level sooner or later. Stay tuned…
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver continued to consolidate below 35, the psych mark, last week and more sideway trading could be seen. But, as long as 32.72, the Key support, holds, I see this rally extending. A move above 35.26 will target 37.58, the Key resistance mark. I will be cautious and looking for reversal signal at it approaches 37.58. A break of 32.72 will be the 1st signal of a near term reversal and turns the focus back to 30.195 the next support mark.
The Big Picture: as long as 37.58, the Key resistance holds, price actions from 26.105 are viewed as a consolidation pattern, that means, the down trend from 49.82 high is not over, and an new low below 26.105 is favored. A clear break of 37.58 dampens this Bearish POV, and could bring stronger raise back to 49.82 the high.
The Long Term Picture; the Big Q remains, is 49.82 is a medium term or long term Top. With 61.8% Fibo retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 intact, price actions from 49.82 could eventually turn out to be a consolidation, and a break of 37.58, Key resistance, will increase the odds of a new high above 49.82 will be made sooner rather than later. Stay tuned… For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
Technical prediction Crude oil october 1-5 2012
Technical prediction Crude oil october 1-5 2012 : On Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said that the unemployment rate rose in more than half of the country's states last month, the latest evidence that hiring remains tepid across the world's biggest economy. The World Trade Organization, meanwhile, cut estimates for global trade growth for this year and next.
New efforts to revive growth from central banks in Europe, Japan and the U.S. have not been enough to overcome pessimism about the global economy's prospects. When economic growth slows, so does demand for fuel which typically results in lower oil prices. A reduction in energy costs can help boost economic growth further down the track.
In another sign of pessimistic economic expectations, Germany's Ifo index of business confidence fell for the fifth month in a row.
In other Nymex energy futures trading, heating oil declined 2.2 cents to $3.0957 a gallon and natural gas fell 3.1 cent to $2.854 per 1,000 cubic feet. Wholesale gasoline was down 2.95 cents to $2.79 a gallon
Crude Oil fell to 88.95 last week before recovering. Some consolidations could be seen this week, but another fall is mildly in favor as long as 94.08 holds. The recent fall from 100.42 extends to 61.8% the Fibo retracement of 77.28 to 100.42 at 86.12 and possibly lower. I expect strong support ahead of 77.28 to contain any Southside action. But, a clear break of 94.08 will turn my bias to the Northside for a test of the resistance at 100.42. I do expect another rise to 100.55 after completing the current consolidative price action.
The Big Picture: this current actions uggests that prices from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. The fall from 100.42 is likely the 5th and the last leg of the consolidation. That being the case any Southside action should be contained above 77.28 and bring on an upside breakout eventually. A clear break of 110.55 will suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for a move above 114.83.
The Long Term Picture: Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from the high of 147.27, with the 1st wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it is the 2nd wave of the pattern. Crude Oil could make another high above 114.83, but I see strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the 3rd leg of the consolidation pattern. Stay tuned…
The price of oil fell below $92 a barrel on Monday, dragged down by concerns about weakening global growth and demand for crude.
By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude was down $1.28 at $91.61 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 47 cents on Friday to close at $92.89 in New York.
In London, Brent crude was down $1.40 to $110.02 on the ICE Futures exchange.
New efforts to revive growth from central banks in Europe, Japan and the U.S. have not been enough to overcome pessimism about the global economy's prospects. When economic growth slows, so does demand for fuel which typically results in lower oil prices. A reduction in energy costs can help boost economic growth further down the track.
"Renewed concerns about a slowdown in the global oil demand weighed on market sentiment and prompted investors to some profit taking," said a report from Sucden Financial in London. "In addition, the strengthening U.S. dollar added further pressure to the oil market, while weaker global equity markets set the bearish tone on today's trading."
A stronger dollar makes crude for expensive and a less attractive investment for traders using other currencies. On Monday, the euro was down to $1.2920 from $1.2974 on Friday.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
Nifty expected to levels of 5,900 october 2012
Nifty expected to levels of 5,900 october 2012 : The week was expected to be volatile with a possibility of a minor correction but turned out to be one of consolidation. The Nifty closed at 5,703, higher by 12 points, its fourth straight week of gains. The Indian markets have been among the best performing ones with an 8.46-pct gain this month. FIIs continued to pour in with the last week’s tally at $1.42 billion.
Over the last many months we have discounted high inflation, currency risk, high oil prices, political apathy, scams, downgrade threat as well as tepid corporate performance. But in the next few weeks, any disappointment would be overlooked as skeletons of the past. The government has been announcing market boosting policies. A crucial Supreme Court judgment brought relief, as it clarified the roles of the executive and judiciary in framing of policies.
I don’t see any road blocks for the next few months unless fresh scams surface. There could be some bottlenecks in the reform process during the winter session of parliament in November.
The next set of worries for the stock market would emerge in the run up to the budget in February 2013 which would be a penultimate one for the incumbent government. There would be speculation on various populist measures to woo the electorate which could be detrimental for the long term health of the economy.
Post-2014 political scenario could be another contentious issue which may worry the markets.
A lame duck government with too many power centers, like the one we saw in 1996, could be disastrous for the economy. It’s late in the day for the Congress to politically resurrect itself and seems to have lost connect with the masses. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) too is fighting its own internal battles. In short, it would be nothing short of miracle if we have a strong government with a progressive outlook post 2014.
Thus, those investing now may look to exit by February 2013.
The rupee gained ground to close at 52.88, a sub-53 level after nearly five months, as it was becoming clearer that the reforms are here to stay. The big booster for the rupee was the cut in the withholding tax to 5 pct which was an irritant for the overseas lenders. The next boost came when the government confirmed sticking to H2 FY13 borrowing plan and ruled out additional borrowing, though analysts differ on this.
Oil prices bounced back after a correction but are expected to soften in the coming weeks due to slow down concerns. With rupee expected to touch 50-51 levels in the next few weeks, the pressure on subsidy will soften, thus boosting the recovery cycle.
On the flip side, S&P cut India’s GDP growth forecast to 5.5 pct where as Fitch slashed it to 6 pct. Core industries grew slower at 2.1 pct in August, thus the cummulative April-August growth slowed to 2.8 pct against 5.5 pct last year.
The economic slowdown witnessed in the recent past has resulted in 100 pct increase in corporate debt restructuring applications, a spike of 70 pct in the current financial year compared to 36 for the same period last year.
UB Group stocks were on fire touching 52-week high with expectation of the Diageo deal being consummated soon. Although there was speculation of Emirates being keen on Kingfisher, denial of an additional Rs.2 billion lifeline by the bankers led to a correction on Friday. Secondly, it is not expected that Vijay Mallya will announce any deal during the inauspicious fortnight as per the Hindu calendar which starts on Sept 30th.
As I have been suggesting since the past three weeks, the “nation builder” sectors such as capital goods, infrastructure and banks continued performing with a few of them like Larsen & Toubro touching a 52-week high though the outperformers were consumer goods, FMCG and real estate sectors. The pharma sector too witnessed gains after it emerged that the new drug pricing policy for essential medicines will not have a significant effect on the bottom line. Mid-cap shares were firing on all cylinders with stocks like Gujarat Gas, Hikal Chemicals, Bilcare, NDTV scoring double digit gains.
The markets are in strong bull grip and I don’t expect significant corrections till the winter session of parliament. The corrections would be bought into thus will seem more of a consolidation than a correction. Any adverse international cues could result in knee jerk reaction which should be utilized as an opportunity to buy the resurrected “India Story” as the world liquidity chases it. Watch out for Nifty levels of 5,850-5,900, but mid-cap shares will be the star performers in the next few weeks.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
Asian stock market october 1 2012
Asian stock market october 1 2012 : The euro and oil prices fell on Monday as uncertainty about Spain's bailout and concerns over slumping demand due to a slowdown in global growth weighed on investor sentiment.
Several Asian markets are closed for holidays on Monday, including China, Hong Kong and South Korea, keeping activity subdued.
Investors will wait on China's official purchasing managers index, expected at 0100 GMT, for clues about the country's economic outlook. Analysts expect a reading for the index, which tracks mainly big firms, of 49.8 in September, up from August's 49.2.
"Another sub 50.0 reading will weigh on risk appetite, particularly given the reluctance of Chinese authorities to announce fresh stimulus measures," said Westpac Institutional Bank in a note.
On Saturday, the HSBC China Manufacturing purchasing managers index, which tracks mainly smaller private sector firms, showed overall factory activity shrank for an 11th consecutive month in September.
While the 47.9 final index level was a tad above a flash 47.8 reading, the data suggested China's economy has almost certainly suffered a seventh straight quarter of slowing growth.
Bank of Japan data showed on Monday that sentiment among big Japanese manufacturers worsened in the third quarter from the previous quarter, hit by a steady deterioration in export demand as Europe's debt crisis simmers and China's economy slows.
Japan's Nikkei stock average opened down 0.6 percent, extending Friday's 0.9 percent decline.
The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched down 0.2 percent, with the Australian market down 0.1 percent.
U.S. crude fell 0.8 percent to $91.49 a barrel and Brent fell 0.5 percent to $111.81.
The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.2810 to its lowest in nearly three weeks early on Monday. Risk-sensitive currencies also fell, with the Australian dollar down 0.2 percent to $1.0349, while the safe-haven dollar was bid. The dollar index, measured against a basket of key currencies, added 0.2 percent early on Monday.
An independent audit on Friday showed Spanish banks will need a total of 59.3 billion euros ($76.3 billion) in extra capital to beef up their strength.
The result was in line with market expectations and was applauded by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, but uncertainty over when and whether Spain will seek external aid kept investors nervous.
Credit rating agency Moody's was due to review Spain's debt grade by the end of September. It currently has Spain on one notch above junk with a negative outlook.
Greece, another source of market jitters, resumes talks with its international lenders this week for a bailout needed to avert bankruptcy and a possible euro zone exit. Two German magazines reported on Saturday Athens will receive the aid despite budget shortfalls and slow progress on reforms because the euro zone does not want the country to leave the euro.
"All of this suggests a range trading environment with a mild positive bias," said Sebastien Galy, currency strategist at Societe Generale in a note.
A slew of central bank policy meetings this week will kick off with the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, followed by the ECB, the Bank of England and the BOJ, potentially deterring investors from making big bets.
Euro zone and U.S. manufacturing surveys are due later on Monday but the key this week is Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls, the first jobs data after the Fed's latest easing.
A report on Friday showed business activity in the U.S. Midwest contracted in September for the first time in three years, underscoring the fragility of the economy.
Currency speculators boosted bets against the U.S. dollar in the latest week to the highest in more than a year, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.
Over the past week, investors shifted money into bond funds and sharply cut back on new money committed to stock funds amid renewed concerns about the Spanish debt crisis, data from EPFR Global showed on Friday.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
Stock market outlook october 8-12 2012
Stock market outlook next week october 8-12 2012 : On Friday stock markets were mixed with the Dow finishing up slightly and the other two major indexes declining as investors contended with a jobs report that showed a drop in the unemployment rate but sparked debate as to what the numbers actually meant for the economy. Read more on Friday jobs report and 7.8% unemployment rate.
Equities markets are cruising near 52-week highs as earnings season gets rolling. Over the past week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.26% has climbed 1.3%, the S&P 500 Index SPX -0.03% has risen 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP -0.42% has advanced 0.6%.
Investors will get their first taste of big-ticket earnings for the third quarter next week as Alcoa Inc. and J.P Morgan Chase & Co. report results, but international economic events may provide a distraction from earnings season.
Markets have gotten a boost from another infusion of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve and investors will get to see if stocks can support those gains as earnings season ramps up.
Tuesday will mark the traditional start of the earnings season as Alcoa AA +0.22% , the first Dow component to report each quarter, gives its results reports after the closing bell.
A slowdown of growth in China along with Europe’s recession and fiscal woes are expected to have put a dent in international revenue for most multinational firms.
Also on Tuesday, after the closing bell, Yum Brands Inc. YUM -0.71% reports. Luschini said Yum results should also provide a good preview of consumer activity ahead of Friday’s University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index.
Yum results should also provide a glimpse into consumer spending in China. While the chain recently announced its 4,000th KFC store in China, it has reported a slowdown in same-store sales growth. Read more on Yum and U.S. restaurant earnings outlook.
And, as the nation wraps up its Golden Week holiday on Sunday, attention will once more turn to the People’s Bank of China, which is expected to release September financial statistics later in the week.
Of particular interest will be new loan growth figures for September, which should offer guidance about whether more easing measures are on the way, said John Canally, investment strategist and economist for LPL Financial.
In September, the Chinese central bank injected 365 billion yuan ($57.9 billion) into the financial system to prop up equity markets, but anticipated supporting measures from Chinese securities regulators never materialized. Read more on China easing.
Banks earnings in focus on Friday
Two big financial earnings reports will cap the week when Dow-component J.P. Morgan Chase JPM -0.26% and Wells Fargo & Co. WFC -0.36% give their results on Friday. those reports should also provide a good gauge of consumer health through such figures as mortgage banking activity and reserve releases.
Financial companies are expected to have the highest earnings growth rate, 10%, in the recent quarter, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet.
But even with earnings season grabbing attention, Canally said much of his attention will be focused abroad. The International Monetary Fund is scheduled to release its World Economic Outlook report on Tuesday at its week-long annual meeting in Tokyo.
“The world’s got to get used to China not growing at 10% a year anymore,” Canally said.
Also, European finance ministers are expected to tell the United States to get its own fiscal house in order and deal with the so-called fiscal cliff at a G7 meeting in Tokyo Thursday. Read more on European ministers planned statement to U.S.
But while G7 meetings may provide some distraction, markets are not as sensitive to them as they used to be since the European Central Bank offered to backstop much of the EU’s economic turmoil with a bond-buying plan, Canally noted. Read more on the ECB.
Closer to home, Canally said he’ll be watching out for the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday to gauge how Main Street is looking at the economy, and see if their view is consistent with the jobs reports that came out on Friday.
Other earnings reports due out next week include Costco Wholesale Corp. COST +0.31% on Wednesday, and Fastenal Co. FAST -0.72% and Safeway Inc. SWY -1.16% on Thursday.
Safeway should receive a big boost in earnings-per-share this quarter given the supermarket operator’s aggressive share buyback plan over the past year Read more on Safeway and 9 other stocks set to get an EPS buyback boost .
Another thing to look out for when earnings reports start to fly are the outlooks for the fourth quarter and 2013.
“There’s concern that the market will over-interpret when outlooks come down, because at the end of the day earnings drives stock markets,” Canally said.
Third-quarter earnings season is expected to be the worst season since the fourth quarter of 2009, when the country was crawling out of the recession, with an expected 2.7% drop in earnings for the S&P 500 SPX -0.03% and flat year-over-year revenue.
Also, 78% of S&P 500 companies that provided an earnings outlook, 80 out of 103, have said they will miss the Wall Street consensus. Read more on the third-quarter earnings season outlook.
Even with all that negativity, the S&P 500 is expected to turn in its third highest EPS result of $25, just under the all-time high of $25.43 in the second quarter.
With an expected $26.94 for the fourth-quarter, analysts expect that estimate to decline once companies start issuing conservative outlooks.
Other economic reports due out next week are August wholesale inventories on Wednesday; the August trade deficit and September federal budget on Thursday; and the September producer price index on Friday
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
5 Ekim 2012 Cuma
How will US jobless rate report october 5 2012
How will US jobless rate report october 5 2012, Unemployment rate September 2012, US NonFarm Payrolls report october 5 2012 : The jobless rate in the U.S. probably rose in September as employers limited hiring, keeping the labor market’s lack of progress at the center of Federal Reserve deliberations and the presidential election.
Unemployment increased to 8.2 percent last month from 8.1 percent in August, according to the median projection of 88 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Payrolls climbed by 115,000 workers, less than the 139,000 average over the first eight months of the year, the report may also show.
Joblessness that’s exceeded 8 percent for an unprecedented 43 months is restraining incomes and impeding consumers’ ability to support the economy as global demand and business investment wane. Today’s release marks the second-to-last jobs report before the November elections as President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney debate who’s best equipped to boost employment.
The Labor Department will issue the report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Payroll estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from gains of 60,000 to 165,000.
September’s projected increase suggests headcounts rose by an average of 117,000 each month in the third quarter, the second-weakest pace in two years.
Private payrolls, which exclude government jobs, probably climbed by 130,000 after rising 103,000 in August, economists anticipate the report will show.
Persistent Unemployment
The unemployment rate, derived from a survey of households, has topped 8 percent since February 2009, the longest stretch in monthly records dating back to 1948. The U.S. economy has so far recovered about 4.1 million of the 8.8 million jobs lost in the wake of the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009.
Only one president, Ronald Reagan, has been re-elected since World War II with unemployment above 6 percent. On Election Day 1984, the rate was at 7.2 percent, having fallen almost three percentage points in the previous 18 months.
To boost employment, Obama last September proposed the American Jobs Act, which would cut payroll taxes for workers and employers, provide aid to states and increase spending on public-works projects. Romney has vowed to create 12 million new jobs as part of a plan that includes developing the energy sector and reducing taxes. The two debated this week.
Bond Purchases
Warning that it can’t combat a slowdown in growth caused by stricter fiscal policy, the Fed last month said it would hold its target interest rate near zero until at least mid-2015 to stimulate more hiring. The central bank also began a third round of stimulus, buying $40 billion in mortgage bonds a month. The S&P 500 rose to 1,465.77 the next day, the highest close since December 2007.
The S&P 500 Index last week had its biggest weekly slump since June amid disappointing economic data, including a plunge in orders for durable goods and stalled consumer spending.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
Gold Prices predicted $2,400 summer 2013
Gold Prices predicted $2,400 summer 2013 : Gold could hit an all-time high of $2,400 by next summer, driven up by a third round of quantitative easing in the US. The first round of QE in February 2009 caused the gold price to increase rapidly from a base of $900/oz – from which it has never looked back.
BlackRock fund manager Evy Hambro who invests in the precious metal and gold equities, predicted that QE3 could result in the gold price hitting US$2,400/oz by the middle of next summer.
In his gold report this week he said: "The gold chart has turned decidedly bullish with the 50-day moving average rising above the 200-day moving average. The last time this happened was in February 2009, which interestingly was shortly after the implementation of QE1. Then, gold was $900/oz and never looked back. Should we witness a similar rally, prices would be taken to $2,400/oz by midsummer next year – and $1,760/oz would be the new floor."
The International Monetary Fund released data this week which revealed central banks continue to buy gold with both South Korea and Paraguay recently adding to their reserves.
South Korea has doubled its bullion assets over the past year, purchasing 16 tonnes in July alone.
Mr Hambro said: "If the third round of quantitative easing leads to further weakness of the US dollar, central banks may be prompted to switch more cash reserves into gold."
Spot gold was up 0.6pc to $1,788.54/oz on Thursday morning, just shy of an 11-month high above $1,791 hit earlier in the week. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5pc to $1,790.20.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
how will Impact tensions in the Middle East on Gold Prices
how will Impact tensions in the Middle East on Gold Prices : Comex gold prices are ended the U.S. day session solidly higher and hit a fresh seven-month high Thursday. Prices are now within easy striking distance of the 2012 high just above $1,800.00. The market was supported by fully bullish outside markets that saw a sharply lower U.S. dollar index and sharply higher crude oil prices.
There was also a sniff of fresh safe-haven demand wafting in the gold market Thursday, as tensions in the Middle East are heating up. December gold last traded up $12.10 at $1,791.90 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $10.90 an ounce at $1,790.50. December Comex silver last traded up $0.275 at $34.965 an ounce.
On the geopolitical front, fresh violence in Syria this week and rising tensions between Iran and Turkey pushed the market place a just a bit more toward risk aversion Thursday. Reports said Iranian and Turkish troops were mobilizing near their shared border. There was also protesting in Iran this week due to the severe devaluation of the Iranian currency recently. These developments did prompt some fresh safe-haven investment demand for gold.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
U.S. stock futures ahead of payrolls report 10/5/2012
U.S. stock futures ahead of payrolls report 10/5/2012 : U.S. stock index futures were slightly higher in thin trading Friday, after four days of gains on the S&P 500, and ahead of a government payrolls report expected to show a tick up in hiring last month and a slight increase in the unemployment rate.
* A positive market reaction to the jobs report could drive the S&P 500 to its highest close since December 2007, about four points above Thursday's close.
* The payrolls data, due at 8:30 a.m EDT (1230 GMT), is forecast to show 113,000 jobs were created in September compared with 96,000 in August. The unemployment rate is seen at 8.2 percent, against 8.1 percent in the previous month.
* S&P 500 futures rose 2.1 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 20 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 6 points.
* Zynga shares fell 20 percent in premarket trading after it slashed its 2012 outlook for a second time, fanning doubts about its ability to halt a steep decline in earnings. Facebook, which derives over a tenth of its revenue from fees paid by Zynga, saw its shares fall 2.6 percent.
* Sprint Nextel is considering making a rival bid for MetroPCS Communications, which agreed Wednesday to a merger with Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile USA, according to people familiar with the situation.
* U.S. stocks rose on Thursday following encouraging U.S. data and comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on tools to tackle the region's debt crisis and in support of the euro.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
gold prices for next week october 8-12 2012
gold prices forecast next week october 8-12 2012 :Gold traders are the most bullish in three weeks as investors’ bullion holdings expanded to a record after central banks pledged to do more to spur economic growth.
Twenty of 32 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week, nine were bearish and three were neutral. Investors are holding the most metal ever through gold-backed exchange-traded products after buying 85.4 metric tons last month, the most since July 2011. Hedge funds’ bets on a rally are the biggest in seven months, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.
The European Central Bank held interest rates at a record low yesterday after agreeing on an unlimited bond-purchase program last month and the Federal Reserve announced a third round of quantitative easing. The Bank of Japan has said it will add to a fund that buys assets and China approved a $158 billion subways-to-roads construction plan. Gold rose 70 percent as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing from December 2008 through June 2011.
“More and more people are going to anticipate inflation in the future because of quantitative easing and the amount of debt we’ve got in the system,” said Frederique Dubrion, the Geneva- based president and chief investment officer of Blue Star Advisors SA, which manages metals and energy assets. “We can print whatever amount of money we need, but you can’t print gold. It’s nobody’s liability, it’s a hard currency.”
Gold’s Rally
Gold climbed 14 percent to $1,787.25 an ounce in London this year, reaching a 10-month high yesterday. It is heading for a 12th consecutive annual gain. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities added 1.7 percent and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 12 percent. Treasuries returned 2.4 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.
Some investors buy bullion as a hedge against inflation and a weaker dollar, and the metal generally earns returns only through price gains, increasing its allure as interest rates decline. The Fed said Sept. 13 it will probably hold the federal funds rate near zero until at least the middle of 2015. Inflation expectations measured by the break-even rate for five- year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities jumped 41 percent this year and reached a 16-month high on Sept. 17.
Gold is 7 percent below the record $1,921.15 reached in September 2011 and its average so far this year is set to be the highest ever. Prices reached all-time highs in euros, Swiss francs and South African rand this week.
Coin Buying
The advance in ETP holdings is being reflected in coin purchases. Sales of American Eagle gold coins by the U.S. Mint jumped 76 percent to 68,500 ounces last month, the most since January, data on its website show. UBS AG said yesterday its physical gold sales on Oct. 3 to India, last year’s biggest buyer, were the most since April. Indian consumers usually accelerate purchases before the wedding season and religious festivals later this year.
While demand from India will be “strong” in the third and fourth quarters, overall consumption will slump 25 percent to about 750 tons this year, Marcus Grubb, managing director of investment research at the World Gold Council, told reporters in London on Oct. 3. Buying retreated this year amid surging local prices and as jewelers held a strike in March and April to protest government taxes on imports.
The metal rallied about 8.8 percent since moving above its 200-day moving average in August. Other technical indicators are signaling prices may be poised to decline. Bullion’s 14-day relative-strength index (MXWD) was at 71.8 yesterday, above the level of 70 that indicates to some analysts who study such charts that a drop in prices may be imminent.
Record Prices
Recycling may expand as analysts from Bank of America to Deutsche Bank AG forecast record prices by next year. Scrap supplies will climb 5.4 percent to 1,750 tons this year, Morgan Stanley estimates. Investors added 197.6 tons to ETPs since the start of January, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That will drop to 100 tons in 2013, Morgan Stanley predicts.
Hedge funds and other speculators more than doubled their net-long position since Aug. 14 to the most since Feb. 28, CFTC data show. Barclays Plc said last month it opened a precious- metals vault in London that is one of the largest in Europe, because of demand from investors. ETP holdings reached a record 2,554.3 tons on Oct. 3, valued at $146.8 billion, data show.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
4 Ekim 2012 Perşembe
London copper futures outlook october 1 2012
London copper futures outlook october 1 2012 : London copper edged down on Monday on persistent worries over global economic growth after two indicators showed China's factory sector is still shrinking while concerns over Spain's banks and prospects for a bailout curbed the appetite for risk.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange slipped 0.38 percent to $8,174 a tonne by 0110 GMT, reversing a small advance seen the previous session.
LME copper ended the third quarter steady from the second, despite a raft of easing measures unleashed by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central bank, and targeted fine-tuning by China. Prices, in June down by more than 12 percent, have however rallied to post gains of nearly 8 percent this year.
* The Shanghai Futures Exchange is closed this week. * China's official factory purchasing managers' index rose to 49.8 in September from 49.2 in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.
* China's economy has almost certainly suffered a seventh straight quarter of slowing growth, with a new private sector survey of factory managers revealing a near year-long decline in business activity and a fresh fall in export orders in
September.
* Codelco, the world's No.1 copper producer, will seek to reduce 2013 physical copper premiums to Asian buyers by about $5, while its European rate will likely be held or trimmed by a smaller amount, a source linked to the company told Reuters.
* U.S. copper consumers have lodged a last-ditch effort to block government approval of new physically backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), warning they would have a "devastating" effect on prices and supply.
MARKETS NEWS
* The euro fell to a three-week low in early Asian trading on Monday, after an independent audit of Spain's banks failed to quell concerns about the country's progress towards a bailout needed to shore up its public finances.
* The euro and oil prices fell on Monday as uncertainty about Spain's bailout and concerns over slumping demand due to a slowdown in global growth weighed on investor sentiment.
* Crude oil prices rose on Friday, with Brent gaining nearly 15 percent in the third quarter, while expiring front-month U.S. gasoline futures rocketed late to rally 19 cents a gallon.
* Japan's Nikkei average fell to a near three-week low in early trade on Monday, extending the previous session's drop, on persistent concerns over slowing global growth.
DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0500 India HSBC Markit Manufacturing PMI
0743 Italy Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI
0753 Germany Markit/BME Manufacturing PMI
0758 Euro zone Markit Manufacturing PMI
1258 U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI
1400 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
1400 U.S. Construction spending
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
european stock futures down october 1 2012
european stock futures down october 1 2012 : European stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Monday, adding to the previous session's losses on mounting concerns over Spain's economic crisis and as data signalled further evidence of slowing growth in China.
At 0602 GMT, futures for Euro STOXX 50, for Germany's DAX and for France's CAC 40 were down 0.3-0.6 percent.
European (SXXP) stock futures fell as Japan’s largest manufacturers became more pessimistic and China’s manufacturing contracted for a second month, adding to evidence the global economy is faltering. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also slid.
European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. and BAE Systems Plc (BA/) may move as their $45 billion merger plan faced opposition from a shareholder of the French maker of passenger jets and weapons. Banco Popular Espanol SA (POP) may be active after a report that its board approved a capital increase. Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) may move after Credit Suisse Group AG downgraded the stock.
Futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index expiring in December dropped 0.4 percent to 2,444 at 7:33 a.m. in London. Contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index declined 0.1 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.2 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 0.4 percent.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
Related Post:
European stock markets higher october 2 2012
European stock markets higher october 2 2012 : Europe's main stock markets have risen, building on gains from Monday on the back of growing expectations of a full financial bailout for Spain.
After falling at the start of trading, London's benchmark FTSE 100 index of top companies on Tuesday was up 0.13 per cent at 5,827.69 points in late morning deals.
Frankfurt's DAX 30 climbed 0.29 per cent to 7,347.67 points and the Paris CAC 40 won 0.03 per cent to 3,435.58.
Madrid's IBEX 35 index rallied 1.10 per cent to 7,872.00 points.
In foreign exchange trading, the euro climbed to $US1.2910 from $US1.2896 late in New York on Monday. Gold prices edged down to $US1,779.28 an ounce on the London Bullion Market from $US1,787 an ounce on Monday.
Gold, seen as a haven in times of economic unrest, hit an 11-month high point of $US1,791.45 an ounce on Monday before traders banked profits.
"The ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe and a US economy struggling to recover at a more meaningful pace are good enough reasons to support the precious metal for now," said Simon Denham, head of Capital Spreads trading group.
As Spain lurched towards a sovereign bailout, government data published on Tuesday showed that the nation's jobless queue grew by nearly half a million people in the year to September.
Spain has been in recession since late 2011, its second downturn since the bursting of a property bubble in 2008 that destroyed millions of jobs and left the banking sector strewn with bad loans.
The grim economy, bulging deficit and high borrowing costs are driving Spain towards seeking a full-blown bailout. The government says it wants to know more about the conditions, however, before making a decision.
Stock markets had rallied on Monday - the start of the fourth quarter - as traders tracked Spanish debt strains and the revival of a merger bid by commodities sector giants Xstrata and Glencore.
"Yesterday's rebound suggests that markets believe that at some point fairly soon Spain will feel compelled to request further aid, in addition to the banking bailout agreed at the June EU summit," said Michael Hewson, an analyst at CMC Markets trading group.
European stock markets enjoyed a strong July-September as easing concerns about the economy amid fresh stimulus action by central banks resulted in a gain of about 13 per cent for the German DAX, while Spain's IBEX won around 9.0 per cent in value.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today