China stocks Property Shares Rise december 26 2012

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Stock market today - China stocks Property Shares Rise december 26 2012 : China’s stocks swung between gains and losses as technical indicators signaled equities were overbought after the benchmark measure erased this year’s decline yesterday. SAIC Motor Co., the biggest Chinese automaker, dropped for the first time in seven days, losing 3.2 percent. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. paced declines for lenders, sliding 1.2 percent. Developers Poly Real Estate Group Co. (600048) and Gemdale Corp. climbed for a third day on speculation the government’s urbanization plan will support housing demand.


The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell 0.1 percent to 2,211.06 as of 1:12 p.m. local time. The measure yesterday wiped out losses this year of as much as 11 percent and climbed above its 200-day moving average. The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) slid 0.1 percent to 2,446.14, led by consumer discretionary companies such as automakers. Hong Kong’s market is closed today for holidays.

“The momentum is still there as the economy continues to recover and new leaders promise more reforms to boost growth,” said Wang Weijun, a strategist at Zheshang Securities Co. in Shanghai. “The market might have some fluctuations at this level but the trend is upward.”

Trading volumes in the Shanghai Composite were 70 percent higher than the 30-day average today. The index has risen 13 percent since this year’s closing low of 1,959.77 on Dec. 3 as the nation’s new leaders said they would promote urban development as part of economic reforms.

The 14-day relative strength measure for the Shanghai index, measuring how rapidly prices have advanced or dropped during a specified time period, was at 72.8 yesterday. Readings above 70 indicate a price may be poised to fall.

High RSI
SAIC slid 3.2 percent to 1642 yuan. The 14-day relative strength measure for the stock was at 85.2 yesterday. The shares have jumped 21 percent over the past month, twice as much as the Shanghai index.

FAW Car Co. (000800), which makes cars in China with Volkswagen AG, tumbled 4.5 percent to 8.33 yuan. Great Wall Motor Co., China’s biggest pickup truck maker, lost 1.1 percent to 21.99 yuan.

ICBC declined 1.2 percent to 4.09 yuan. Bank of Beijing Co. slumped 2.8 percent to 9.03 yuan. China Minsheng Banking Corp. (600016), the nation’s first privately owned bank, slipped 0.9 percent to 7.68 yuan. The stock closed at a four-year high yesterday.

China’s money-market rate climbed on speculation banks are hoarding cash to meet year-end capital requirements and holiday withdrawals. The seven-day repurchase rate, which measures interbank funding availability, rose 13 basis points to 3.85 percent as of 11:54 a.m. in Shanghai, according to a weighted average rate compiled by the National Interbank Funding Center.

Urbanization

The Shanghai Composite, up 0.4 percent this year, trades at 10.8 times estimated earnings, compared with 12 times for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg. Thirty-day volatility in the gauge was at 20.2, compared with this year’s average of 17.

China’s largest cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou will limit populations under a new urbanization plan, while smaller cities and towns will loosen controls on residency, the Shanghai Securities News reported, citing an unidentified person.

The country will also improve infrastructure and public services for transportation, communication, sewage and garbage disposal, health-care and education in urban areas, the report said. Urbanization is expected to spur 40 trillion yuan ($6.4 trillion) of investment by 2020, the Southern Metropolis Daily reported yesterday, citing a draft plan by the National Development and Reform Commission on urbanization.

“Developers are gaining on the government’s call to use urbanization as a new engine for growth,” Gao Jian, an analyst at Northeast Securities Co., said in a phone interview.

Property Stocks
A measure of property stocks in the Shanghai Composite climbed 1.3 percent today, extending yesterday’s 4.1 percent jump. The sub-index is heading for its highest close since July 2011 and the biggest two-day gain since Jan. 10. Poly Real Estate, China’s second-largest developer by market value, added 0.5 percent to 12.90 yuan. Gemdale, the third largest, gained 0.3 percent to 6.42 yuan.

China Vanke Co. (000002), the biggest developer, was suspended from trading pending “important matters,” it said. The company plans to convert its Shenzhen-listed B shares traded in Hong Kong dollars to H shares and list in Hong Kong, the Securities Times reported, citing an unidentified company official.

The statistics bureau is scheduled to release November profit for industrial companies tomorrow. Net income surged 20.5 percent from a year earlier in October, according to the bureau.

Source : www.bloomberg.comFor the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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Nifty, Sensex Analysis december 26 2012

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Nifty, Sensex Analysis december 26 2012 ; The Nifty is moving in a tight range after a positive start taking cues from other Asian peers and ahead of the December series expiry. Capital goods, realty and healthcare sectors led the up-move while technology and FMCG space edged lower.  According to analysts, the trade is likely to remain range-bound in the near term as most traders who are in holiday mood are likely to keep their positions light ahead of the New Year. 

At 10:15 a.m.; 50-share index was at 5,866.50, up 10.75 points or 0.18 per cent. It touched a high of 5,870.65 and a low of 5,859.55 in trade today. 
The Sensex was at 19,306.61, up 51.52 points or 0.27 per cent. The index touched a high of 19,321.41 and a low of 19,274.07 in trade today. 
"The trend deciding level for the day is 19,280 / 5,857 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19,323 - 19,390 / 5,870 - 5,885 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 19,280 / 5,857 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19,212 - 19,170 / 5,843 - 5,830 levels," said Angel Broking note.
The BSE Midcap Index was up 0.54 per cent and the BSE Smallcap Index moved up 0.48 per cent. 
Among the sectoral indices, the BSE Capital Goods Index was up 0.98 per cent, the BSE Realty Index gained 0.97 per cent and the BSE Healthcare Index moved 0.72 per cent higher. The BSE IT Index was down 0.16 per cent and the BSE FMCG Index slipped 0.02 per cent. 
Bharti AirtelBSE 2.88 % (1.90 per cent), Jaiprakash Associates (1.67 per cent), Sun Pharmaceuticals (1.23 per cent), Larsen & Toubro (1.24 per cent) and BHEL (1.21 per cent) were the top Nifty gainers. 
Shares of Credit Analysis and Research (CARE) traded higher after listing at Rs 940, a premium of Rs 190 against its issue price of Rs 750 per share on the NSE. 
The stock was at Rs 980.70, up 30.76 per cent or Rs 230.70. It touched a high of Rs 985 and a low of Rs 895 in early trade on volume of 45.52 lakh shares. 
Wipro (1.01 per cent), Kotak Bank (0.80 per cent), Hindustan Unilever (0.79 per cent), Hero MotoCorp (0.76 per cent) and Infosys Technologies (0.76 per cent) were among the losers pack. 
The market breadth was positive on the NSE with 902 gainers against 472 losers. 
The foreign institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 459.67 crore on Friday as per the provisional data from the National Stock Exchange. 
The Asian markets moved higher after the Christmas holiday. The Nikkei 225 was up 0.74 per cent, Taiwan Weighted edged 0.17 per cent higher and the Seoul Composite moved 0.65 per cent higher.For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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Why gold futures prices Down, Analysis december 26 2012

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Why gold futures prices Down, Analysis december 26 2012 - Gold slipped in thin trade on Wednesday as uncertainty over whether the United States would be able to avoid a fiscal crisis kept investors at bay, but lower prices spurred buying from jewellers. President Barack Obama is likely to leave his vacation in Hawaii to return to Washington as early as Wednesday to address the unfinished "fiscal cliff" negotiations with Congress.


A deal to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of tax hikes and spending cuts that kick in at the start of next year and threaten to tip the world's largest economy back into recession would offer trading direction to financial markets.

While gold is typically a safe-haven asset that gets a boost from economic uncertainties, it has increasingly been behaving like a risk asset and could also gain if a US resolution comes through.

"I am still friendly with the market but it looks like until the new year starts, it's under pressure from, probably, long liquidation," Yuichi Ikemizu, branch manager for Standard Bank in Tokyo, adding that investors would closely watch the progress of negotiations between the White House and Congress.

"This week, probably we will stay around here at $1,640 to $1,670."

Gold dropped $3.63 an ounce to $1,654.66 by 0341 GMT, off a 4-month low struck last week. It is still on track for a 12th straight year of gains on rock-bottom interest rates, concerns over the financial stability of the euro zone, and diversification into bullion by central banks.

Markets in London were still shut on Wednesday for the Christmas holiday.    

Gold contracts on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, which often influence movements in spot gold, rose after the yen dropped to a 20-month low against the dollar on growing hopes for further monetary easing in Japan.

But most gold investors are waiting for the outcome of the US fiscal talks after the House of Representatives failed to pass its own budget measures last week.

US gold futures for February slipped $3.80 an ounce to $1,655.70.  

In the physical market, gold dealers noted buying interest from bargain hunters and jewellers in Southeast Asia.

"We don't have enough stocks because of the Christmas holiday, so supply is a bit tight. But the premiums have yet to rise. They are still at $1.0 to $1.20," said a physical dealer in Singapore.

"We are seeing light buying from Indonesia and Thailand."  

In other markets, the yen sank to a 20-month low against the US dollar on Wednesday as Shinzo Abe prepared to assume Japan's helm with a mandate to weaken its currency and push for more drastic monetary and fiscal stimulus.

Asian shares and other assets were capped in thin holiday trade, with investors focusing on the fate of US negotiations to avert a budget crunch looming at the end of the yearFor the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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Analysis forecast Gold prices in india 2013

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Stock market today - Analysis forecast Gold prices in india 2013  : Gold slipped in thin trade on Wednesday as uncertainty over whether the United States would be able to avoid a fiscal crisis kept investors at bay, but lower prices spurred buying from jewellers. President Barack Obama is likely to leave his vacation in Hawaii to return to Washington as early as Wednesday to address the unfinished "fiscal cliff" negotiations with Congress.
Gold futures prices fell by 0.40 per cent to to Rs 30,732 per 10 gm as speculators reduced their positions, taking weak cues from the global market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold prices for delivery in February fell by Rs 122, or 0.40 per cent, to Rs 30,732 per 10 gm in a business turnover of 1,569 lots. Similarly, the metal prices for delivery in far-month April fell by Rs 115, or 0.37 per cent, to Rs 31,152 per 10 gm in 58 lots.
Gold is mostly considered as a hedge or a long term investment rather than means of speculation for most of the investors. Gold price forecasts will never be completely accurate, but we collected some information on the key drivers influencing the gold price forecasts for 2013, to give an idea.
Review of gold in 20122012 opened with a 'green' for Gold. The gold price started into the year 2012 at $1,530 per ounce. Over the full year 2011 the price of gold had increased by more than 13% despite the two dips in September and November/ December. This made 2011 the tenth consecutive year in which the gold price increased.
By November, the gold price had further increased to roughly $1,740, i.e. by more than 13% from the beginning of 2012. Throughout the year, the major factors that played an important role on the precious markets are as follows:
>> In 2010, central banks have changed their status from net sellers to net buyers of gold, driven by a decrease of sales from developed countries and an increase in buying activity from developing countries. Given the low percentage of central bank’s asset allocation into gold in emerging countries like China (2% versus about 70% in countries like the United States, Germany and France), there is a high probability that the central banks will continue to be a net buyer of gold in 2013 and even beyond 2013.
>> Besides jewellery, the demand from the investment sector accounts for more than 50% of total demand. Amidst the money and debt creation by major economies and following the financial crisis, which started in 2007, the demand for gold as an investment reached record highs in 2011. The demand has rose exponentially in the from gold securities like gold ETF and physical gold in the form of bars and coins and in the latter part of the year it has increased in the form of professionally vaulted gold. This indicates that safety is a major concern for gold investors, who usually view physical gold or vaulted gold as more safe than so called ‘paper gold’
>> For India, the government left no stone unturned so as to curb the gGold imports and in turn reduce their trade imbalance. Increase in the import duty on gold, change in lending behaviour of Indian banks for loans against gold etc has affected the demand of gold in India. Just for understanding, government had increased duty in December, 2011 on gold and silver. An additional 2% increase of import duty on gold in March, 2012 has impacted, not only for bullion industry but also for the common man.
>> Through the middle of the year many investors lost faith in gold and no longer believed hat gold is a safe haven asset. Many even believed that gold was in a bubble stage. Investors shifted their attention to other assets like dollar. But as we have seen in the past, gold started gaining importance once again.
>> The Greek Elections held in June reflected mixed sentiments for the precious metals market because everyone was waiting for the FOMC meet that was held after the elections.
Concluding the meet, in a bid to reduce unemployment and protect the economy, the Fed decided to extend its Operation twist till the year end with a sum of US$267.The Launch of QE3 had pushed gold prices to new highs of the year. India too witnessed gold peaking to its life-time high of 32,650 in the physical markets through depreciation of rupee and rise in international prices.
Outlook Gold prices 2013:Globally 2013 will be a better year than 2012. There are positive sentiments in the market as far as economic growth is concerned. GDP growth will also be high. A better economy will bring a rise in demand worldwide and thus production will increase. In this case demand for silver will also rise, given its wide use in various industrial applications. The range for silver in the Indian markets for 2013. Will be between Rs 52,000 and Rs 80,000 a kg.
As far as gold is concerned, it will be moving in the range of Rs 29,500(per 10gm) on the lower side to Rs 35,000 on the upper side (a range of Rs 31,000 to Rs 35,000 is where we expect gold to trade). Gold tends to perform positively in times of economic uncertainties as well as in acute crises. Unfortunately, the global financial problems are not yet sorted out. I still feel there are several more years of uncertainty and painful deleveraging, which could end only when we are approaching the next decade. 
Moreover even if gold prices drop in the international market, Indian prices do not fall that significantly. Due to the rupee depreciation, the reduced international price does not completely impact the Indian price.
Moreover, in 2012 we saw a low volatility ratio and the fluctuations in the market were not that volatile. Whereas in 2013 I expect 50 per cent higher volatility compared to 2012. Geopolitical risks, e.g. in relation to Iran, will support this position of gold as a ‘safe haven’ further. Overall, the markets will be positive for precious metals.For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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NASDAQ, Dow Jones, S&P Analysis today dec 27 2012

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stock market today - NASDAQ, Dow Jones, S&P Analysis today dec 27 2012 : The indexes are about as low as they can go without turning the recent "fiscal cliff" selloff from a scratch to a stitches requiring cut. Any deeper than a cut, and a gash of selling could occur, covering the ticker tape with the blood of losses.
The NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P are tiptoeing on the edge of ascending, short-term trend lines connecting rising pivot bottoms. Since the end of November, the lower barrier has acted like the 3rd rail, putting enough juice in stocks to send the indexes higher. Initially, the major indexes will find a safety net at their 50-day, which are just a touch below Wednesday's closing levels.
Get underneath the 50-days and it could get real dicey as a bearish MACD cross-under is likely to accompany a fall below the key, technical benchmark. The drop dead prices for the S&P could be around 1,380, the Dow at 12,800ish, and the NASDAQ in the neighborhood of 2,875. If the indexes don't recover, and rally beyond mid-September's highs, investors could be reading about head-and-shoulder patterns for the three indexes to the point of nausea.
The equity markets hit a high in March, corrected, and rallied to newer, higher highs in September. There is your left shoulder and potential head. Should the current uptrend fail to regain its stroll and roll on by September's peak, there is your right shoulder. The levels iStock highlighted above are the potential necklines.
A head-and-shoulders breakdown could lead to a nasty selloff. We saw the same pattern develop in the summer of 2011. Not surprisingly, it was the last time the federal government hit an impasse over fiscal issues. Back then, the indexes rolled over the waterfall's edge and entered bear market territory, falling more than 20% from top to bottom.
Unfortunately for D.C., the more things don't change, the more they remain the same. Please secure your seatbelt tightly, make sure the harness is locked in place, and keep your arms inside the ride at all times. This fiscal rollercoaster could be one wild ride.
With or without cliff diving, investors might consider avoiding retail stocks in the coming days and weeks. It clear from our weekly sector performance review, the sector is already on the way down relative to the S&P 500.
For those who want to nibble just in case Washington works something out that pleases Wall Street. Industrials, Business Training, Telecom Equipment, Steel and Semiconductor sector charts are flashing signs that they could outperform the S&P in the near-term. In fact, Intel (INTC) might be a value worth considering.For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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Reserve Balance and Bank Lending

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Here are some thoughts to what might happen over the next year on inflationary pressures as the result of the Federal Reserve’s newest policy. (December FOMC statement here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121212a.htm)

As sterilization (selling short term Treasury securities to buy long term Treasury securities) ends, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is expected to increase over the next year with purchases of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities.

As the Federal Reserve continues to buy assets, (A) and (B) increase. Because the Federal Reserve purchases these assets in the secondary market, primary dealers and other participants that sell the securities to the Federal Reserve will be credited with money. These money ultimately find its way to banks in the form of deposits (D).

As deposit (D) increase, the banks will have to make loans (G), buy other assets (H), or hold it as reserve (C). Loans (G) and other assets (H) of the banks would correspond to money (F) in the Central Bank’s accounts. Reserves (C) of the banks would correspond to reserves (B) in the Central Bank’s account.

Pressure on inflation would be greater if money (F) increases instead of reserves (B) increases. Thus, inflationary pressure depends on what the banks do with the increase in depositions. Interest on excess reserves (IOER) is 0.25%, while deposits at some places pay 0.75%. (See here for example: https://home.ingdirect.com/rates; note that the 6 month CD pays 0.40% while the savings account pays 0.75%, which says something about the expected market conditions in the months ahead)

So, the possibilities for the banks appear to be:

1. holds the new deposit as reserves and lower the deposit rate,
2. make loans with a higher risk-adjusted return than the risk-free 0.25% via IOER, or
3. buy other assets with a higher risk-adjusted return than the risk-free 0.25 via IOER.

Option 3 would lead to a potential wealth effect – if banks buy stocks and the purchases push up the stock prices. Option 2 likely depends on the demand on loans, since supply of loans is unlikely to be the constraint with economy on recovery. I suppose either case would lead to potential inflationary pressure. 

Random: Iraqi Business Man is the New Nigerian Prince?

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While checking my spam email box, this version of the Nigerian Prince scam caught my eyes:

According to Wikipedia on the topic:

One reason why Nigeria may have been singled out is because of the comical, almost ludicrous nature of the promise of West African riches from a Nigerian Prince. According to Cormac Herley, a researcher for Microsoft, “By sending an email that repels all but the most gullible, the scammer gets the most promising marks to self-select.”^[18]

To that logic – it would seem to me that the Iraqi businessman story is more plausible.