29 Kasım 2012 Perşembe

Impact U.S. budget crisis stock market drop

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Stock market news today - Impact U.S. budget crisis stock market drop : Lack of progress in negotiations for a deal to avoid a U.S. budget crisis before a January deadline sent world stock markets lower on Wednesday.
President Barack Obama and U.S. lawmakers have until Jan. 1 to reach a deal to trim the country's unwieldy deficit. Otherwise, a series of automatic tax increases and sharp spending cuts will take effect that could drag the world's No. 1 economy into recession.

A high-ranking member of the U.S. Senate unnerved investors and sent Wall Street lower on Tuesday after expressing frustration over the budget impasse and the looming "fiscal cliff."

In early European trading, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.3 percent to 5,784.61. Germany's DAX lost 0.2 percent to 7,316.69. France's CAC-40 fell 0.3 percent to 3,491.57.

Wall Street headed for a lower open, with Dow Jones industrial futures falling 0.1 percent to 12,850. S&P 500 futures were down 0.1 percent at 1,395.40.

Stock market losses began earlier in Asia. Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 1.2 percent to close at 9,308.35, a day after closing at a seven-month high.

South Korea's Kospi shed 0.7 percent to 1,912.78 and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.2 percent to 4,447.30. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.6 percent to 21,708.98.

Obama plans to make a public case this week for his strategy for dealing with the issue as he pressures opposing lawmakers to allow tax increases on the wealthy while extending tax cuts for families earning $250,000 or less.

On Wall Street, reports released Tuesday showing increases in U.S. consumer confidence and orders for machinery and equipment failed to boost stocks significantly.

"If one could just take politicians and the fiscal cliff out of the picture, an optimistic outlook would be far easier to cobble together. There's been depressingly little news of cliff breakthroughs, or even developments, of late," said analysts at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore in an email commentary.

Mainland China's Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9 percent to 1,973.52, a four-year low. The smaller Shenzhen Composite Index tumbled 1.9 percent to 750.97.

Linus Yip, strategist at First Shanghai Securities in Hong Kong, said the steep drop in Shanghai can be attributed to the expiration of lock up periods for some investors, which allows them to sell their shares and creates a glut on the market for the stock.

Otherwise, the drop among Asian stock markets represents profit-taking by investors who've enjoyed substantial gains in the past two months, Yip said.

Among individual stocks, Australian flag carrier Qantas Airways fell 2.2 percent after ending its 40-year partnership with the tourist body Tourism Australia and suspending a $50 million marketing deal. Japan's Toshiba Corp. fell 4.1 percent. Kobe Steel Ltd. plunged 6.5 percent.

Benchmark oil for January delivery was down 12 cents to $87.03 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 56 cents to finish at $87.18 per barrel on the Nymex on Tuesday.

In currencies, the euro fell to $1.2932 from $1.2939 on Tuesday in New York. The dollar fell to 81.80 yen from 82.17 yen.For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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Phoenix insurance stock ratings

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Phoenix insurance stock ratings :  Phoenix Inc. (NYSE:PNX) is having a tough week. The company’s rating falls from a D to a F rating. Phoenix is the holding company of Phoenix Life Insurance Company. The stock receives F’s in Earnings Growth, Earnings Momentum, Earnings Revisions, and Equity. The stock price has dropped 26.4% over the past month, worse than the 1% decrease the S&P 500 has seen over the same period of timeFor the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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China taxes stock dividends for individuals 2013

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2013 China will apply scale to taxes on stock dividends for individuals : China will apply a sliding scale to taxes on stock dividends for individuals from January 1, 2013, as authorities struggle to restore investor interest in swooning domestic equities markets.
According to an announcement on the Ministry of Finance's website on Friday, dividends will be taxed at diminishing rates over time.

Dividends from shares held for less than one month will be taxed at 20 percent, while stocks held for more than one month but less than one year will be taxed at 10 percent. For stocks held for over a year, the rate drops to 5 percent.

"The longer investors hold shares, the lower their tax burden is," said the announcement.

"This will encourage long-term investment strategies and suppress short-term speculation."

The tax rate on dividends is currently a flat 10 percent.

Chinese market reformers have carried out piecemeal reforms to transaction fees and other minor regulations this year to encourage investors to return to trading stocks.

Head securities regulator Guo Shuqing has repeatedly criticized the preference of many retail investors to engage in short-term speculation on lesser known tickers, encouraging investors to buy and hold blue-chip shares instead.

These moves have yet to inspire the markets. China's CSI300 index, which tracks the largest tickers on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, fell to its lowest level this year on Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index is down over 8 percent this year after shedding 22 percent in 2011.For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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Why MegaFon Shares price down debut in london stock market

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Stock market today - Why MegaFon Shares price down debut in london stock market : Shares in Russian mobile phone operator MegaFon tumbled yesterday on a disappointing stock market debut in London. The company, controlled by Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov, who has a 30 per cent stake in Arsenal Football Club, raised £1.1bn selling stock to investors.

But the shares - priced at $20, at the bottom of the $20 to $25 range and valuing the firm at £6.9bn - fell to $19.60.

MegaFon chief executive Ivan Tavrin, who attended a ceremony at the London Stock Exchange to mark the start of trading, put on a brave face, claiming the demand for shares was 'a clear endorsement of MegaFon's investment case'.

The MegaFon offering was the largest by a telecoms company in London since Orange in 2001 and took the total amount raised by Russian new issues on the London Stock Exchange to £5.1bn this year.

It was the biggest listing by a Russian company since aluminium producer Rusal raised £1.4bn in Hong Kong in 2010.

MegaFon joins 65 Russian companies quoted in London which have raised £42.9bn since 2004. The company’s shares are jointly traded in Moscow and London.For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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28 Kasım 2012 Çarşamba

2013 UnitedHealth profit analysts estimated

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Stock market today - 2013 UnitedHealth profit analysts estimated  :  UnitedHealth Group Inc , the largest U.S. private health insurer, said on Monday it expects 2013 earnings of $5.25 to $5.50 per share, below analysts' expectations.

The outlook backs up comments the company made in October that analysts' estimates for 2013 were too high due to the weak economy and government efforts to rein in the deficit. At that time, the Wall Street consensus was for earnings of $5.60 per share.

UnitedHealth shares fell 93 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $53.01 in Monday morning New York Stock Exchange trading.

Revenue should be $123 billion to $124 billion next year, higher than the Wall Street target, UnitedHealth said in a statement ahead of a Tuesday meeting with analysts and investors.

Analysts had expected 2013 earnings
of $5.58 per share on revenue of $119.12 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

"As expected, 2013 guidance seems conservative, but prudently so, as it's a first look at the year and there is still a cloud of uncertainty around the 'fiscal cliff' and debt ceiling issues," Sheryl Skolnick, an analyst at CRT Capital Group, said in a research note.

The fiscal cliff and debt ceiling issues could affect the economy and UnitedHealth's Medicare Advantage government health insurance program for older people, Skolnick said.

UnitedHealth has a history of beating its forecasts, Oppenheimer analyst Michael Wiederhorn said in a research note. He also said it was not immediately clear if the Wall Street consensus outlook for 2013 revenue was comparable and included sales from Brazil's Amil Participacoes SA . UnitedHealth is in the process of buying the Brazilian company for $4.9 billion.

UnitedHealth also reaffirmed its 2012 outlook for earnings of $5.20 to $5.25 per share.For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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27 Kasım 2012 Salı

Google Consumer Surveys Election Data, Some Comments

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The Google election data (link here) would be a fun dataset to play around in Tableau (link here), except I don't have the time right now.

Note that Google surveyed the population with the following questions:
    1. Who do you want to win the US Presidential Election?
    2. Regardless of who you want, who do you think will actually win the Election?

In regards to question two, Justin Wolfers (and co-author David Rothschild) noted in a paper (link here) that framing the question this way yields more accurate results.

I haven't look at the underlying data closely, but I would think the Google dataset should be able to either validate further (or cast doubt) on the paper finding. There’s also a NPR article about this (link here).

26 Kasım 2012 Pazartesi

U.S. stock Dow Jones futures Down today

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Stock market today - U.S. stock Dow Jones futures Down today : U.S. stock-market futures headed lower on Monday, with investors focusing on continued negotiations over the so-called fiscal cliff and discussions among euro-area finance ministers over the next tranche of Greek aid.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 54 points, or 0.4%, to 12907, while those for the Standard & Poor's 500 index eased 6.7 points, or 0.5%, to 1398.60.

Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index fell 10 points, or 0.4%, to 2624.25.

"We could see U.S. markets start positively, but they're a bit nervous about Greece," said Henrik Drusebjerg, senior strategist at Nordea Bank. He said prospects for a so-called Santa Claus rally lie in the hands of global politicians.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% on Friday, its first close above 13000 since Election Day on Nov. 6. The index netted a 3.4% weekly gain, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 3.6%.

Later on Monday, European finance ministers will meet to try and approve the latest aid payment to Greece, after failing to agree last week with the International Monetary Fund over those conditions.

"It's far too early to say that's irrelevant," said Drusebjerg. "Most investors are hoping for a deal today that will kick the can more than three months down the road."

"Without agreement on how to reduce the debt, euro-zone ministers and the IMF do not want to resume payments of loan tranches to Athens, even though Greece has met all the conditions, because they have no guarantee on whether the need for emergency financing will ever end," added Max Cohen, financial sales trader at SpreadEx, in emailed comments.

U.S. politics make up the other focus for investors. Lawmakers will return to Washington for a three-week session after the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Some Republican lawmakers reportedly said over the weekend that they are ready to break a longstanding promise not to raise taxes.

And leading Democratic Sen. Richard Durbin, speaking on ABC's "This Week" program on Sunday, also was guardedly optimistic about a deal.

"It's a step towards a solution," said Drusebjerg. "There's now also movement from the Democrats. It's some part of a sign they're willing to work together."

He said markets got a lift last week on signs that consumers were actively spending on Black Friday.

"That's given some hope that Christmas shopping this year will be a lot better than expected, and that could be a pickup for the U.S. economy," he said. But he said failure on the part of U.S. politicians over the fiscal cliff or European politicians regarding Greece could stymie economic growth.

While no major economic data are on the calendar for Monday, retailers could be in focus again after reports that a record number of consumers were out in force over the holiday shopping weekend.

The Monday after Thanksgiving--known as Cyber Monday--also is a key day of shopping for the e-commerce world, with one analysis suggesting sales could hit $1.5 billion.

In other markets, European stocks weakened ahead of the Greece talks, and after weekend elections in Spain, which were won by Catalonian separatists. Oil and gold prices also fell.

Risk aversion drew investors to the dollar, though. For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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